辽宁省沿海地区海水稻种植对农民增收的影响及效益评价——基于统计建模的实证分析

Impact of Saline-Alkali-Tolerant Rice Cultivation on Farmers’ Income Growth and Benefit Evaluation in Coastal Areas of Liaoning Province—An Empirical Analysis Based on Statistical Modeling

摘要: 本文基于辽宁省6个沿海市县2019~2023年的宏观统计数据与286份农户微观调研问卷，运用工具变量法(2SLS)实证检验海水稻种植对农民人均可支配收入增长率的影响机制。研究表明：海水稻种植面积占比、政策补贴强度、农业技术推广次数均对农民增收具有显著正向影响；该效应存在区域异质性，且核心适宜区的增收效果明显。进一步中介效应检验表明，农业经营性收入占比在海水稻种植与农民增收之间发挥部分中介作用。据此提出应实施差异化补贴政策、优化技术投入结构、完善产业链配套等建议，以强化海水稻产业的增收效能，为同类地区盐碱地农业开发提供参考。

Abstract: Based on the macro statistical data from 6 coastal cities and counties in Liaoning Province from 2019 to 2023 and 286 micro survey questionnaires of farming households, this paper empirically examines the impact mechanism of saline-alkali-tolerant rice cultivation on the growth rate of per capita disposable income of farmers by using the Instrumental Variables Method (2SLS). The research results show that the proportion of saline-alkali-tolerant rice cultivation area, the intensity of policy subsidies, and the frequency of agricultural technology promotion all have significant positive impacts on farmers’ income growth. This effect exhibits regional heterogeneity, with a significantly stronger income-increasing effect in core suitable areas. Further mediation effect analysis indicates that the proportion of agricultural operating income plays a partial mediating role between saline-alkali-tolerant rice cultivation and farmers’ income growth. Accordingly, this paper puts forward suggestions such as implementing differentiated subsidy policies, optimizing the structure of technical input, and improving the supporting industrial chain to strengthen the income-increasing effect of the saline-alkali-tolerant rice industry, which provides a reference for the development of saline-alkali land agriculture in similar regions.