沈阳市城郊热岛效应演变特征分析

Analysis of the Evolution Characteristics of the Urban Heat Island Effect in the Suburbs of Shenyang

摘要: 城市热岛效应是城市化进程中的典型环境问题。本文以典型的北方工业与中心城市沈阳市为研究对象，基于2016年至2024年的气象、生态与人为活动等多源数据，综合运用热岛强度计算、Spearman相关分析、移动平均法、滞后效应模型及综合指数构建等方法，系统分析热岛效应演变的多因素驱动特征。研究结果表明：沈阳市热岛强度年际波动显著(0.038℃~0.714℃)；月均日照时长(ρ = 0.450)与空气质量综合指数(ρ = 0.350)是加剧热岛效应的主要因素，月均风速(ρ = −0.300)为关键缓解因素；生态因素具有显著滞后与累积效应，地表水资源滞后一年的相关性由−0.183升至−0.738；人为活动指标与热岛强度呈弱负相关(ρ = −0.150)，反映生态补偿的部分抵消作用；构建的综合热岛压力指数(ρ = 0.550)有效地揭示了气象因素实时变化与生态因素长期缓释的协同作用机制，为北方工业城市热岛效应治理与生态规划提供量化依据。

Abstract: The urban heat island effect is a typical environmental problem in the process of urbanization. Taking Shenyang, a typical northern industrial and central city, as the research object, this paper systematically analyzes the multi-factor driving characteristics of the evolution of the heat island effect by comprehensively using methods such as heat island intensity calculation, Spearman correlation analysis, moving average method, lag effect model and comprehensive index construction, based on multi-source data including meteorology, ecology and human activities from 2016 to 2024. The results show that the annual fluctuation of heat island intensity in Shenyang is significant (0.038˚C~0.714˚C); the monthly average sunshine duration (ρ = 0.450) and the comprehensive air quality index (ρ = 0.350) are the main factors exacerbating the heat island effect, while the monthly average wind speed (ρ = −0.300) is the key mitigating factor. Ecological factors have significant lag and cumulative effects, with the correlation of surface water resources lagging one year rising from −0.183 to −0.738. The indicators of human activities show a weak negative correlation with the heat island intensity (ρ = −0.150), reflecting the partial offsetting effect of ecological compensation. The constructed comprehensive heat island pressure index (ρ = 0.550) effectively reveals the synergistic mechanism between the real-time changes of meteorological factors and the long-term slow release of ecological factors, providing a quantitative basis for the governance and ecological planning of the heat island effect in northern industrial cities.