基于MaxEnt模型对铁杆蒿的中国潜在适生区研究

Study on the Potential Suitable Habitat of Artemisia sacrorum Ledeb in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

摘要: 铁杆蒿(Artemisia sacrorum Ledeb.)别名白莲蒿、万年蒿，是菊科蒿属的半灌木状草本植物。常用于生态修复和医药领域，为探究铁杆蒿的适生区变化，本研究191条物种分布数据和19个生物气候因子、3个地形因子以及10个土壤因子数据，采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS软件对铁杆蒿当前以及2050 s、2070 s时期，SSP126、SSP585气候模式下在中国的潜在适生区和影响因素进行预测。结果表明：MaxEnt预测结果可靠(AUC = 0.913)，其中，最冷季度平均温度、最湿月份降水量、最冷季度降水量、海拔为影响铁杆蒿分布的主导因子；当前气候条件下，适生区面积为2,444,476.009 km²，集中分布于东北部省份；随着时间推移，在2050 s时期，SSP126、SSP585气候模式下的适生区面积分别为2,772,723.32 km²、2,879,538.7 km²；2070 s时期，SSP126、SSP585气候模式下的适生区面积分别为2,850,733.996 km²、2,983,643.882 km²。未来适生区呈扩张趋势，尤其以高排放情景显著：2070 s时期SSP585背景下扩张区面积高达762,253.004 km²，扩张区向北部迁移。研究揭示铁杆蒿在不同背景下的潜在适生区分布以及影响其生长的主要环境因子，为退耕地植被恢复引种和草药采集提供了科学参考。

Abstract: Artemisia sacrorum Ledeb., also known as Bai Lianhao or Wannianhao, is a semi-shrubby herbaceous plant in the genus Artemisia of the Asteraceae family. It is commonly used in ecological restoration and medicine. To explore changes in the suitable habitat of Artemisia sacrorum, this study used 191 species distribution records and data on 19 bioclimatic factors, 3 topographic factors, and 10 soil factors. The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were employed to predict the potential suitable habitats and influencing factors of Artemisia sacrorum in China under current conditions and in the 2050 s and 2070 s under the SSP126 and SSP585 climate scenarios. The results indicate that the MaxEnt predictions are reliable (AUC = 0.913), with the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the coldest quarter, and elevation being the main factors affecting the distribution of Artemisia sacrorum. Under current climatic conditions, the suitable habitat area is 2,444,476.009 km², mainly concentrated in northeastern provinces. Over time, in the 2050s, the suitable habitat areas under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios are 2,772,723.32 km² and 2,879,538.7 km², respectively. In the 2070 s, the suitable habitat areas under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios are 2,850,733.996 km² and 2,983,643.882 km², respectively. The future suitable habitats show an expanding trend, particularly under high emission scenarios: in the 2070 s under the SSP585 scenario, the expansion area reaches 762,253.004 km², with the expansion moving northward. This study reveals the potential suitable habitat distribution of Artemisia sacrorum under different scenarios and the main environmental factors affecting its growth, providing a scientific reference for vegetation restoration in retired farmland and medicinal plant collection.