“双碳”背景下新能源汽车动力电池闭环供应链合作机制与减排效益研究

Study on Closed-Loop Supply Chain Cooperation Mechanism and Emission Reduction Benefits of NEV Power Batteries under the “Dual Carbon” Goals

摘要: 随着我国新能源汽车产业的不断发展，动力电池的回收利用正逐渐成为制约行业可持续发展与实现“双碳”目标的一大瓶颈。本文基于闭环供应链理论，运用系统动力学方法，构建了包含电池生产、梯次利用、废料回收及碳交易成本测算全过程的仿真模型。研究重点引入了横向技术合作与纵向供应链上下游协同两个维度，模拟了在自主发展与国际合作两种情景下供应链的经济效益与环境效益演化路径。仿真结果表明：1) 在两种情景下，提高纵向合作程度均能在显著提升利润的同时还能降低净碳排放量，实现经济效益和环境效益的双赢；2) 相较于自主发展情景，国际合作情景虽然能让供应链以更快的速度降低碳排放，率先实现供应链低碳化，但受技术进步产生的“消费者剩余”现象导致其经济效益略低于自主发展情景。基于此，本文从加强国际技术交流、构建多方协同回收体系等方面提出了针对性的政策建议，为后补贴时代动力电池产业的高质量发展提供理论依据。

Abstract: With the continuous expansion of China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, the recycling and utilization of power batteries have increasingly become a critical bottleneck hindering sustainable development and the realization of “Dual Carbon” goals. Drawing upon closed-loop supply chain theory and utilizing System Dynamics (SD), this paper constructs a simulation model encompassing the entire life cycle, including battery production, echelon utilization, waste recycling, and carbon trading cost estimation. The research focuses on two dimensions: horizontal technological cooperation and vertical supply chain coordination, simulating the evolutionary paths of economic and environmental benefits under “Independent Development” and “International Cooperation” scenarios. The simulation results indicate that: 1) Under both scenarios, enhancing the degree of vertical coordination significantly boosts profits while reducing net carbon emissions, achieving a “win-win” for both economic and environmental outcomes. 2) Compared to the independent development scenario, the international cooperation scenario enables the supply chain to reduce carbon emissions more rapidly, taking the lead in achieving decarbonization. However, due to the “consumer surplus” phenomenon triggered by accelerated technological progress, its economic benefits are slightly lower than those of the independent development scenario. Based on these findings, this paper proposes targeted policy recommendations, such as strengthening international technical exchange and establishing a multi-party collaborative recycling system, to provide a theoretical basis for the high-quality development of the power battery industry in the post-subsidy era.