1960~2024年川渝地区极端降水变化特征分析
Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Variation Characteristics in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region from 1960 to 2024
DOI: 10.12677/ccrl.2026.152040, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 梅小艳, 祁诗童, 董 怡：成都信息工程大学资源环境学院，四川 成都；罗依梦*, 任丽霞：射洪市气象局，四川 遂宁；肖梓涵：成都信息工程大学光电工程学院(人工影响天气学院)，四川 成都；刘昱含：垫江县气象局，重庆；胡 进：青神县气象局，四川 眉山；肖祖国：定南县气象局，江西 赣州
关键词: 极端降水；川渝地区；气候变化；Theil-Sen斜率；Mann-Kendall检验；Extreme Precipitation； Sichuan-Chongqing Region； Climate Change； Theil-Sen Slope； Mann-Kendall Test
摘要: 本研究基于国家青藏高原科学数据中心CHM_PRE V2高分辨率格点降水数据集，采用Theil-Sen斜率估计法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和Hurst指数，系统分析了1960~2024年川渝地区8个极端降水指数的时空变化特征。结果表明：(1) 川渝地区极端降水空间分布呈显著区域差异，四川盆地西部和东北部的极端降水强度与频率明显高于盆地东部及川西高原；1991~2024年盆地西部极端降水呈增强趋势，而盆地东部部分区域呈减弱趋势；(2) 1960~2024年间，川渝地区极端降水总体呈增加趋势，Rx1day和Rx5day高值区集中于盆地西部和东北部，最大值分别为122.43 mm和168.31 mm，各极端降水指数在空间上呈现有升有降、趋势复杂的分布特征；(3) 极端降水变化具有明显的阶段性，Rx1day和SDII呈显著上升趋势，Prcptot、Rx5day、R10、R20、CWD、CDD均呈下降趋势，1991~2024年各指数变化趋势较1960~1990年更为显著；(4) 川渝地区极端降水变化具有较强的持续性特征，大部分极端降水指数的Hurst指数介于0.7~0.8之间，时间序列记忆性较强，未来极端降水事件可能继续呈增强态势。
Abstract: Based on the CHM_PRE V2 high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset from the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, this study employs the Theil-Sen slope estimator, Mann-Kendall trend test, and Hurst exponent to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of eight extreme precipitation indices in the Sichuan-Chongqing region during 1960~2024. The results indicate that: (1) Extreme precipitation exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity. Intensity and frequency are higher in the western and northeastern Sichuan Basin than in the eastern basin and western Sichuan Plateau. During 1991~2024, an increasing trend is observed in the western basin, while a decreasing trend appears in parts of the eastern basin. (2) Overall, extreme precipitation shows an increasing trend from 1960 to 2024. High-value areas of Rx1day and Rx5day are concentrated in the western and northeastern basin, with maximum values of 122.43 mm and 168.31 mm, respectively. Spatial trends are complex, with both increases and decreases. (3) Phase changes are evident. Rx1day and SDII exhibit significant increasing trends, whereas Prcptot, Rx5day, R10, R20, CWD, and CDD show decreasing trends. Trends during 1991~2024 are more pronounced than those in 1960~1990. (4) Extreme precipitation variations demonstrate strong persistence, with Hurst indices mostly between 0.7 and 0.8, indicating high temporal memory and suggesting continued intensification in the future. This study provides a scientific basis for extreme precipitation risk assessment and disaster prevention in the Sichuan-Chongqing region.
文章引用：梅小艳, 罗依梦, 祁诗童, 肖梓涵, 刘昱含, 胡进, 董怡, 肖祖国, 任丽霞. 1960~2024年川渝地区极端降水变化特征分析[J]. 气候变化研究快报, 2026, 15(2): 348-359. https://doi.org/10.12677/ccrl.2026.152040

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