农业机械化对粮食生产韧性的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Agricultural Mechanization on the Toughness of Grain Production

摘要: 粮食安全是维系国家稳定的战略基石，粮食生产韧性作为保障粮食安全的核心指标，其提升对应对全球市场波动与极端气候等挑战至关重要。本文基于2014~2023年我国30个省份的面板数据，采用实证研究方法，构建基准回归模型、中介效应模型，系统探究农业机械化对粮食生产韧性的影响及作用机制，并通过稳健性、内生性、异质性检验验证结论可靠性。研究结果表明：第一，农业机械化对粮食生产韧性具有显著正向提升作用，该结论经稳健性与内生性检验后依然成立；第二，土地产出率在二者关系中发挥部分中介作用，农业机械化通过实现生产精细化、促进规模化经营等提升土地产出率，进而间接增强粮食生产韧性；第三，该影响存在显著异质性，乡村振兴战略实施后、低地形起伏区及非西部地区的农业机械化对粮食生产韧性的提升效果更为突出。基于研究结论，本文提出提升农机化发展质量、促进规模化经营与农机化协同发展、精准赋能农机化发展等对策建议，为筑牢国家粮食安全屏障提供理论支撑与实践参考。

Abstract: Food security is the strategic cornerstone to maintain national stability. As the core index to ensure food security, the improvement of food production resilience is very important to meet the challenges of global market fluctuation and extreme climate. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2014 to 2023, this paper uses empirical research methods to construct benchmark regression model and intermediary effect model, systematically explores the influence and mechanism of agricultural mechanization on grain production resilience, and verifies the reliability of the conclusion through robustness, endogeneity, and heterogeneity tests. The results show that: firstly, agricultural mechanization has a significant positive effect on the toughness of grain production, and this conclusion is still valid after the robustness and endogenous test; secondly, the land output rate plays a partial intermediary role in the relationship between them. Agricultural mechanization enhances the land output rate by realizing fine production and promoting large-scale operation, thus indirectly enhancing the resilience of grain production. Thirdly, the impact is significantly heterogeneous. After the implementation of rural revitalization strategy, agricultural mechanization in low-lying areas and non-western areas has a more prominent effect on improving the toughness of grain production. Based on the research conclusion, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions, such as improving the development quality of agricultural mechanization, promoting the coordinated development of large-scale operation and agricultural mechanization, and accurately empowering the development of agricultural mechanization, so as to provide theoretical support and practical reference for building a national food security barrier.