城镇职工基本养老保险覆盖面对基金可持续性的影响研究——以四川省为例

Research on the Impact of Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Coverage on Fund Sustainability—A Case Study of Sichuan Province

摘要: 高质量扩大养老保险覆盖面是积极应对人口老龄化的重要举措之一，然而扩面的同时也面临着基金能否可持续的压力。因此本文以四川省为研究对象，采用2013~2023年时间序列数据，聚焦城镇职工基本养老保险基金可持续性，针对参保率、老年抚养比、职工平均工资、基金收入增速与累计结余的关系展开探究。初始多元线性回归因变量间严重共线性，通过主成分分析(PCA)降维，提取出贡献率达98.43%的两个成分：pc1，反映“参保扩面 + 老龄化 + 工资增长”的长期趋势；pc2，由基金收入增速主导，体现短期波动。以主成分得分重构回归模型，结果表明：长期趋势因素对基金可持续性的核心支撑，短期收入波动作用较弱。

Abstract: Expanding pension insurance coverage with high quality is an important measure to actively respond to population aging. However, the expansion of coverage is accompanied by pressures on the sustainability of pension funds. Therefore, this paper takes Sichuan Province as the research object, uses time-series data from 2013 to 2023, focuses on the sustainability of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees, and explores the relationships among the insurance participation rate, old-age dependency ratio, average employee wage, fund income growth rate, and cumulative balance. Severe multicollinearity was observed among variables in the initial multiple linear regression model. Principal component analysis (PCA) was then adopted for dimensionality reduction, extracting two principal components with a cumulative contribution rate of 98.43%: pc1 reflects the long-term trend of expanded coverage, population aging and wage growth, while pc2, dominated by income growth rate, captures short-term fluctuations. The reconstructed regression model indicates that long-term trend factors play a core supporting role in fund sustainability, whereas short-term income fluctuations have a relatively weak impact.