我国财政社会保障支出地区差异及影响因素组态研究

Research on Regional Disparities and Configurational Influencing Factors of China’s Fiscal Social Security Expenditure

摘要: 为推进共同富裕实质性进展，社会保障制度通过财政补助、转移支付的方式在促进社会公平分配上起着重要作用。但地区间、省际间社会保障财政资金与当地财政紧密相关，社会保障支出非均衡性显著存在。厘清地区差异现状，通过影响因素组态探究其是否偏离社会保障的公平性，是目前亟需探讨的问题。本文基于2014~2023年省级财政社会保障支出面板数据，运用Dagum基尼系数，量化分析社会保障财政支出的区域差异水平及结构，并基于PEST模型构建包含财政自主性、经济发展水平、人口结构特征、社会保障信息化水平四个变量在内的影响因素模型，利用fsQCA定性比较方法进一步研究对财政社会保障支出产生影响的条件组态，有助于揭示财政资源配置的非均衡性与社会保障公平性之间的关系。

Abstract: To achieve substantial progress in common prosperity, the social security system plays an important role in promoting equitable social distribution through fiscal subsidies and transfer payments. However, inter-regional and inter-provincial social security fiscal funds are closely tied to local public finances, resulting in significant imbalances in social security expenditure. Clarifying the current state of regional differences and exploring whether they deviate from the equity of social security through configurational analysis of influencing factors is an urgent issue that needs to be addressed. Using panel data on provincial fiscal social security expenditure from 2014 to 2023, this paper employs the Dagum Gini coefficient to quantitatively analyze the level and structure of regional differences in fiscal social security expenditure. Based on the PEST model, it constructs an influencing factor model that includes four variables: fiscal autonomy, economic development level, demographic structure characteristics, and social security informatization level. Furthermore, it applies the fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) method to investigate the configurational conditions affecting fiscal social security expenditure, which helps to reveal the relationship between the imbalance in fiscal resource allocation and the equity of social security.