东北三省城市收缩的环境综合效应

The Comprehensive Environmental Effects of Urban Shrinkage in Three Northeastern Provinces

摘要: 随着东北地区人口持续外流与产业结构调整，城市收缩已成为区域发展的显著特征。本文基于2010~2023年东北三省34个地级市的面板数据，构建涵盖资源利用、生态环境质量、环境治理等维度的环境效应评价指标体系，采用熵值法测算环境综合效应指数，并运用双向固定效应模型与动态面板模型分析城市收缩对环境效应的影响。研究发现：城市收缩对环境效应的影响整体不显著，呈现“中性”特征，表明收缩并未必然带来环境改善或恶化；环境效应具有较强的空间独立性，与经济、社会效应不同步；产业结构升级的环境效应尚未显现，而财政投资作用有限。研究结论为理解收缩背景下城市环境治理的复杂性提供了实证依据，也为制定适应性环境政策提供了参考。

Abstract: With the continuous outflow of population and industrial restructuring in Northeast China, urban shrinkage has become a prominent feature of regional development. Based on panel data from 34 prefecture-level cities in the three northeastern provinces from 2010 to 2023, this paper constructs an environmental effect evaluation index system covering resource utilization, ecological environment quality, and environmental governance. The entropy method is used to calculate the comprehensive environmental effect index, and a two-way fixed-effects model and a dynamic panel model are employed to analyze the impact of urban shrinkage on environmental effects. The study finds that the overall impact of urban shrinkage on environmental effects is not significant, exhibiting a “neutral” characteristic, indicating that shrinkage does not necessarily lead to environmental improvement or deterioration; environmental effects have strong spatial independence and are not synchronized with economic and social effects; the environmental effects of industrial restructuring have not yet manifested, while the role of fiscal investment is limited. The research conclusions provide empirical evidence for understanding the complexity of urban environmental governance under the background of shrinkage and also provide a reference for formulating adaptive environmental policies.