城市物流企业“进入–退出”的时空演化及分异特征——以江苏省为例

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Differentiation Characteristics of “Entry-Exit” in Urban Logistics Enterprises—A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

摘要: 物流企业是物流业中市场行为的主要参与者，为物流活动提供落地支持，物流企业的“进入–退出”行为不仅反映市场的活力与韧性，也深刻影响着城市资源配置与产业的可持续发展。本文基于2010~2022年物流企业微观数据，运用时空可视化方法刻画物流企业进入与退出的时空格局，并在此基础上分析其时空分异特征。结果表明：(1) 物流企业进入与退出的时间趋势呈现“核心引领、差异显著”的特征。企业进入呈现先升后稳的发展态势，2010至2018年城市物流企业进入数量处于快速增长期，企业退出则呈现一直上升的时间趋势，2010~2022年物流企业退出数量持续增加。(2) 企业进入与退出的空间演化呈现明显的“区域分异、梯度演进”特征。企业进入的空间格局从苏南地区向苏中、苏北地区逐渐扩散，但苏南(苏州、南京)始终处于较高等级，企业退出格局由苏南局部高值演变为南北双高。(3) 省内城市时空分异特征显著。国家物流枢纽城市承担了全省物流企业进入与退出的主要份额，但不同区域枢纽之间存在差异，苏南(南京、苏州、无锡)呈现“高进入、中退出”；苏中(南通)展现出较强的稳定性；苏北(连云港、徐州)呈现“高进入、高退出”。

Abstract: Logistics enterprises are the primary market actors in the logistics industry, providing on-the-ground support for logistics activities. Their “entry-exit” behavior not only reflects the vitality and resilience of the market but also profoundly influences urban resource allocation and the sustainable development of the industry. Based on microdata on logistics enterprises from 2010 to 2022, this paper employs spatiotemporal visualization methods to depict the spatiotemporal patterns of logistics enterprise entry and exit, and analyzes their spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics. The results indicate that: (1) The temporal trends of logistics enterprise entry and exit exhibit characteristics of “core-led development and significant regional variation”. Enterprise entry followed a pattern of initial growth followed by stabilization; from 2010 to 2018, the number of new logistics enterprises entering cities experienced a period of rapid growth. Conversely, enterprise exit showed a consistently rising trend, with the number of exiting enterprises increasing continuously from 2010 to 2022. (2) The spatial evolution of enterprise entry and exit exhibits distinct characteristics of “regional differentiation and gradient progression”. The spatial pattern of enterprise entry gradually expanded from the Southern Jiangsu region to Central and Northern Jiangsu, though Southern Jiangsu (Suzhou, Nanjing) consistently maintained a higher level. The pattern of enterprise exit evolved from localized high values in Southern Jiangsu to dual high values in both the north and south. (3) Significant spatiotemporal differentiation exists among cities within the province. National logistics hub cities account for the majority of both new entries and exits of logistics enterprises across the province, but differences exist among hubs in different regions: Southern Jiangsu (Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi) exhibits “high entry, moderate exit”; Central Jiangsu (Nantong) demonstrates strong stability; and Northern Jiangsu (Lianyungang, Xuzhou) exhibits “high entry, high exit”.