不确定性条件下海外光伏项目投资决策的实物期权研究

A Real Options Analysis of Investment Decisions for Overseas Photovoltaic Projects under Uncertainty

摘要: 在多重不确定性条件下，海外光伏项目的投资决策面临电价波动、光资源差异、组件衰减以及汇率变动等多因素共同作用，而传统基于确定性现金流的净现值(NPV)方法难以支持企业形成有效的动态投资决策规则。为刻画不确定性条件下投资决策的灵活性与管理价值，文章构建了一个融合光伏辐照度、电价随机过程、组件衰减与汇率波动的多维随机模型框架，并引入三阶段实物期权方法，对海外光伏项目的投资、延迟与放弃决策进行系统分析。研究结果表明，在不确定性水平较高的情境下，实物期权价值显著高于传统NPV评估结果，且电价波动率、汇率波动幅度与组件衰减率对最优投资时机与决策阈值具有显著影响。进一步分析发现，不确定性的上升会提高“等待决策”的管理价值，使投资临界条件相较于NPV判据整体上移，从而避免过早进入或过度投资带来的决策偏误。研究为企业在海外光伏投资中识别和管理不确定性提供了一种可操作的定量分析框架，有助于管理者在复杂环境下制定更为稳健的投资决策规则，对新能源项目投资决策与不确定性管理具有一定的实践参考价值。

Abstract: Under conditions of multiple uncertainties, investment decisions for overseas photovoltaic projects are influenced by a combination of factors, including electricity price fluctuations, variations in solar irradiance, module degradation, and exchange rate fluctuations. Traditional Net Present Value (NPV) methods based on certain cash flows struggle to support companies in formulating effective dynamic investment decision-making rules. To characterize the flexibility and managerial value of investment decisions under uncertainty, this paper constructs a multidimensional stochastic model framework that integrates PV irradiance, electricity price stochastic processes, module degradation, and exchange rate fluctuations. By introducing a three-stage real options approach, the study conducts a systematic analysis of investment, deferral, and abandonment decisions for overseas PV projects. The results indicate that under high-uncertainty scenarios, the real option value is significantly higher than the results of traditional NPV assessments, and that electricity price volatility, exchange rate fluctuations, and module degradation rates have a significant impact on the optimal investment timing and decision thresholds. Further analysis reveals that increased uncertainty enhances the managerial value of “wait-and-see” decisions, shifting the investment threshold upward relative to the NPV criterion, thereby avoiding decision biases resulting from premature entry or overinvestment. This study provides a practical quantitative analytical framework for enterprises to identify and manage uncertainty in overseas photovoltaic investments. It assists managers in formulating more robust investment decision-making rules under complex conditions and offers practical reference value for investment decision-making and uncertainty management in new energy projects.