气候变化对广西北部湾经济区城市韧性的影响

Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Urban Resilience in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone of Guangxi

摘要: 本文基于2015~2024年广西北部湾经济区南宁市、钦州市、北海市和防城港市的面板数据，构建城市韧性评价指标体系，运用熵权法测算城市韧性，并基于双向固定效应面板数据模型，实证研究气候变化(年平均气温、最高气温、平均风速及降水量变化)对城市韧性的影响。研究结果显示：第一，城市韧性呈现“首府显著领先，沿海三市趋近”的空间格局。第二，经济发展、生态环境与人力资本等控制变量呈弱负向影响，既可能源于指标测量偏差，也折射出临港重化工业的高气候敏感性、绿化质量滞后与人才专业错配等区域特征。第三，气候变化的影响存在维度差异。平均气温与风速呈显著负向效应，反映气候冲击的实质性抑制；最高气温与降水变化率呈弱正向效应，可能部分源于生态与设施维度的测量捕获偏差，且具有阈值依赖性。

Abstract: Based on the panel data of Nanning, Qinzhou, Beihai and Fangchenggang in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone from 2015 to 2024, this paper constructs an urban resilience evaluation index system, measures urban resilience using the entropy weight method, and empirically investigates the impact of climate change (annual average temperature, maximum temperature, average wind speed, and precipitation change) on urban resilience through a two-way fixed effects panel data model. The findings are as follows: First, urban resilience exhibits a spatial pattern characterized by “the capital city significantly leading, while the three coastal cities show converging trends”. Second, the control variables—economic development, ecological environment, and human capital—exhibit weak negative effects, which may be partly attributable to measurement bias in the indicators, while also reflecting regional characteristics such as the high climate sensitivity of the port-led heavy chemical industry, the quantity-oriented approach to greening construction, and the mismatch in talent specialization. Third, the impact of climate change varies by dimension. Average temperature and wind speed show significant negative effects, reflecting the substantive inhibiting impact of climate shocks; maximum temperature and the rate of precipitation change show weak positive effects, which may be partly due to measurement capture bias in the ecological and infrastructure dimensions, and are subject to threshold dependence.