新疆布鲁氏菌病集合种群网络建模与分析
Modeling and Analysis of Metapopulation Network for Brucellosis in Xinjiang
DOI: 10.12677/aam.2026.155253, PDF,   
作者: 崔二佳, 李明涛, 裴 鑫*：太原理工大学数学学院，山西 太原；荆文君：山西财经大学统计学院，山西 太原
关键词: 布鲁氏菌病；动物调运；马尔可夫过程；集合种群网络；流行阈值；Brucellosis； Animal Transportation； Markov Process； Metapopulation Network； Epidemic Threshold
摘要: 布鲁氏菌病作为典型的人畜共患病，动物调运是其跨区域传播的关键途径。本文以新疆维吾尔自治区为研究对象，基于马尔可夫过程构建人羊耦合的布鲁氏菌病集合种群网络模型，推导得到模型基本再生数与流行阈值。结合实际疫情与调运数据完成参数拟合与验证，通过参数敏感性分析识别了影响布病传播的关键参数，并重点探究真实调运网络下布鲁氏菌病的传播特征。结果表明，疫情呈多节点异质性周期性爆发特征；关键参数对布鲁氏菌病传播的影响不同，传染率是疫情扩散核心驱动因素，调运率对累计病例呈U型影响，免疫率与扑杀率呈单调抑制效应；网络平均度对传播的影响存在明显阈值，2~7时传播强度变化剧烈，大于7后网络传播强度逐渐稳定。本研究揭示了真实调运网络对布病跨区域传播的影响规律，为布鲁氏菌病的精准防控、羊群调运网络的科学管控提供了量化依据。
Abstract: Brucellosis, as a typical zoonotic disease, is mainly transmitted across regions via animal transportation. Taking Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as the study area, this paper constructs a human-sheep coupled metapopulation network model for brucellosis transmission based on the Markov process, and derives the basic reproduction number and epidemic threshold of the model. Using actual epidemic and transportation data, we complete parameter fitting and model validation, and identify key parameters affecting brucellosis transmission through sensitivity analysis. We focus on exploring the transmission characteristics of brucellosis under real transportation networks. The results show that the epidemic presents obvious multi-node heterogeneity and periodic outbreak characteristics. Key parameters exert distinct impacts on brucellosis transmission: the infection rate acts as the core driving factor of epidemic spread; the transportation rate shows a U-shaped effect on cumulative cases, while the immunization rate and culling rate exhibit monotonic inhibitory effects. The network average degree has a clear threshold effect on transmission: the transmission intensity changes drastically when the average degree ranges from 2 to 7, and gradually stabilizes when it exceeds 7. This study reveals the influence of real transportation networks on the cross-regional spread of brucellosis, providing a quantitative basis for the precise prevention and control of brucellosis and the scientific management of livestock transportation networks.
文章引用：崔二佳, 荆文君, 李明涛, 裴鑫. 新疆布鲁氏菌病集合种群网络建模与分析[J]. 应用数学进展, 2026, 15(5): 584-599. https://doi.org/10.12677/aam.2026.155253

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