2018年云南盛夏强降水天气过程个例分析

A Case Analysis of Heavy Summer Precipitation Weather Process in Yunnan Province in 2018

摘要: 利用MICAPS常规资料和区域自动站、FY-2G等非常规观测资料，应用诊断分析方法，分析了2018年8月3~4日云南强降水过程的天气成因。结果表明：(1) 500 hPa两高辐合、700 hPa低涡切变、地面辐合线是主要的影响天气系统；(2) 物理量场上，低层水汽充沛，具有大气对流不稳定层结、有利的垂直风切变、高层辐散、低层辐合、上升运动发展、低层水汽辐合加强，导致强降水天气发生发展；(3) 4家数值预报模式对云南强降水过程均有一定的预报能力，具有业务参考价值。

Abstract: By using the conventional data of MICAPS and unconventional observation data such as regional automatic weather stations and FY-2G meteorological satellite cloud images, and applying diagnostic analysis methods, the weather causes of the heavy precipitation process in Yunnan from August 3rd to 4th, 2018 were analyzed. The results show that: (1) The 500 hPa two-high convergence, the 700 hPa low eddy shear, and the ground convergence line are the main weather influencing systems; (2) On the physical quantity field, the lower layer is rich in water vapor, featuring unstable atmospheric convective stratification, favorable vertical wind shear, upper-level divergence, lower-level convergence, the development of ascending motion, and the strengthening of lower-level water vapor convergence, which leads to the occurrence and development of heavy precipitation weather. (3) All four numerical prediction models have certain forecasting capabilities for heavy precipitation processes and have business reference value in Yunnan meteorological service.