气候投融资与宏观经济稳定——基于理论与实证的分析

Climate Investment and Financing and Macroeconomic Stability—A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

摘要: 在全球经济下行压力加大、气候风险持续凸显的背景下，平衡绿色发展与经济稳定已成为核心议题，而气候投融资作为引导资金流向低碳领域的关键工具，其经济稳定效应尚未得到充分探究。本文基于金融加速器理论，探究气候投融资对企业投资波动的抑制作用及其经济稳定器效应。研究创新构建了气候投融资发展水平综合评价指标体系，选取2014~2023年A股1539家上市企业面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型、工具变量法与双重机器学习等方法，系统检验其影响效应与作用机制。研究发现，气候投融资能显著降低企业投资波动，该效应在非国有企业与东部地区企业中更为突出；缓解企业融资约束、推动企业绿色化转型是其平滑投资波动的两大核心路径；内生性处理与多维度稳健性检验，均验证了研究结论的可靠性。本研究理论上拓展了金融加速器理论的应用场景，为气候金融与宏观经济稳定的交叉研究提供了新视角；实践上为完善气候投融资政策体系、实现气候目标与经济稳定协同发展提供了实证依据，也为企业绿色转型中稳定投资行为提供了参考。未来可进一步探究不同气候投融资工具的效果差异与微观传导机制。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of mounting downward pressure on the global economy and escalating climate risks, balancing green development and economic stability has emerged as a core issue. As a pivotal instrument guiding capital toward low-carbon sectors, the economic stabilization effect of climate investment and financing remains insufficiently explored. Based on the financial accelerator theory, this paper investigates the inhibitory impact of climate investment and financing on corporate investment volatility and its economic stabilization effect. This study innovatively constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the development level of climate investment and financing. Using panel data of 1,539 A-share listed enterprises from 2014 to 2023, it adopts two-way fixed effect model, instrumental variable method and double machine learning to systematically examine the influencing effect and functional mechanisms. The results indicate that climate investment and financing markedly curbs corporate investment volatility, with a more pronounced effect on non-state-owned enterprises and firms in eastern regions. Alleviating corporate financing constraints and advancing corporate green transformation serve as two core paths to smooth investment fluctuations. Endogeneity treatment and multi-dimensional robustness tests verify the credibility of research conclusions. Theoretically, this research broadens the application scope of the financial accelerator theory and offers a new perspective for interdisciplinary studies on climate finance and macroeconomic stability. Practically, it provides empirical evidence for optimizing the climate investment and financing policy system and coordinating climate goals with steady economic growth, as well as references for enterprises to stabilize investment decisions during green transformation. Further research can explore the efficacy discrepancies and micro transmission mechanisms of diverse climate investment and financing instruments.