贵州区域飞机空中积冰特征及指数适用性研究

A Study on the Characteristics and Applicability of Airborne Icing Indices in Guizhou Province

摘要: 飞机空中积冰是威胁飞行安全的典型危险天气。在全球变暖背景下，评估区域积冰风险的时空演变对航空安全保障至关重要。本文基于2018~2025年贵州区域的126份飞机空中积冰报告，系统分析了积冰事件的月、日变化特征，以及在不同季节下的强度、高度和空间分布规律。同时，利用ERA5再分析资料，对IC指数和加权平均SCIP指数在贵州复杂地形下的适用性进行了验证与对比。最后基于综合性能更佳的积冰指数对贵州区域积冰风险进行评估。结果表明：(1) 贵州区域飞机积冰事件主要发生在11月至次年3月，7~13时及18~23时为出现高峰，呈现出“中部密集、北部分散、西南空白”的空间格局特征，高风险区集中于贵阳机场以北至东南的扇形区域上空3~5 km高度层。(2) 指数验证显示，加权平均SCIP指数在AUC、TSS、F1分数及召回率等关键指标上均优于传统IC指数，其最佳判别阈值为0.271。(3) 积冰风险“冬高夏低、夜高昼低”，空间上黔东北为高风险区，500 hPa层的积冰风险高于700 hPa层。本研究明确了贵州区域飞机空中积冰风险的历史时空特征，并筛选出适用的诊断指数，为后续的风险定量评估与预测研究奠定了基础。

Abstract: Airborne icing is a typical hazardous weather phenomenon threatening flight safety. Under the background of global warming, assessing the spatiotemporal evolution of regional icing risk is crucial for aviation safety. This paper systematically analyzes the monthly and daily variation characteristics of icing events, as well as the intensity, altitude, and spatial distribution patterns under different seasons, based on 126 aircraft airborne icing reports from Guizhou Province between 2018 and 2025. Simultaneously, using ERA5 reanalysis data, the applicability of the IC index and the weighted average SCIP index under Guizhou’s complex terrain was verified and compared. Finally, the icing risk in Guizhou Province was assessed based on the icing index with better comprehensive performance. The results showed that: (1) Aircraft icing events in Guizhou mainly occurred from November to March of the following year, with peak occurrences between 7:00~13:00 and 18:00~23:00, exhibiting a spatial pattern of “dense in the central region, scattered in the north, and blank in the southwest”. The high-risk area was concentrated at an altitude of 3~5 km above a fan-shaped area north to southeast of Guiyang Airport. (2) Index verification showed that the weighted average SCIP index was superior to the traditional IC index in key indicators such as AUC, TSS, F1 score, and recall rate, with an optimal discrimination threshold of 0.271. (3) Icing risk was “high in winter and low in summer, high at night and low during the day”. Spatially, northeastern Guizhou was a high-risk area, with the icing risk at the 500 hPa layer being higher than that at the 700 hPa layer. This study clarified the historical spatiotemporal characteristics of aircraft air icing risk in Guizhou and selected applicable diagnostic indices, laying the foundation for subsequent quantitative risk assessment and prediction research.