数字经济与能源消费结构转型的耦合协调及影响因素

The Coupling Coordination and Influencing Factors of the Digital Economy and Energy Consumption Structure Transformation

摘要: 文章基于2012~2022年中国30个省级行政区的面板数据，采用熵权TOPSIS法、耦合协调度模型及障碍度模型分析发现：数字经济与能源消费结构转型指数呈现上升趋势并区域差异显著，整体耦合协调度进入中度协调阶段；但协同效应提升幅度滞后于单一系统发展速度，呈现“协同滞后”特征；主要障碍因素为数字创新能力、数字产业化、产业数字化及非化石能源低碳水平。究其原因，数字经济因缺乏能源场景的有效需求拉动而陷入技术空转，能源转型因总量约束失位及数字赋能缺位导致“协同滞后”。据此，提出强化总量约束刚性，提升能源侧承接能力等对策，促进二者协调发展。

Abstract: Based on the panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2012 to 2022, this paper uses the entropy weight TOPSIS method, coupling coordination degree model and obstacle degree model to analyze and find that the transformation index of the digital economy and energy consumption structure shows an upward trend and significant regional differences, and the overall coupling coordination degree enters a moderate coordination stage. However, the increase of synergistic effect lags behind the development speed of a single system, showing the characteristics of “synergistic lag”; the main obstacle factors are digital innovation ability, digital industrialization, industrial digitization and low carbon level of non-fossil energy. The reason is that the digital economy has fallen into technological idleness due to the lack of effective demand for energy scenarios, and the energy transformation has led to “synergy lag” due to the loss of total amount constraints and the absence of digital empowerment. Based on this, it is proposed to strengthen the rigidity of the total amount constraint and improve the capacity of the energy side to promote the coordinated development of the two.