认罪认罚从宽制度的量刑效果与犯罪治理——基于北上广深醉驾案件的实证研究

The Leniency System for Confessing Guilt and Accepting Punishment: Sentencing Effects and Crime Governance—An Empirical Study of DUI Cases in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen

摘要: 认罪认罚从宽制度在我国轻罪治理中扮演着日益重要的角色。本研究以醉驾案件为切入点，基于北京、上海、广州、深圳四地286份一审判决书的实证数据，运用线性回归、Logistic回归、倾向值匹配等方法，系统考察认罪认罚从宽制度的量刑效果及其犯罪治理功能。研究发现，认罪认罚显著降低了拘役刑期并提升了缓刑适用率；从宽效果在重情节案件中幅度更大，契合差别威慑逻辑；珠三角地区量刑基准显著低于上海，反映地方司法偏好分化；2023年“两高两部”新规产生独立整体从宽效应，与认罪认罚形成互补；该制度通过缓刑扩张缓解短期监禁的标签效应，但“重罪重赏”异质性需警惕。未来应通过统一量刑指引、扩大非监禁措施与建立追踪数据库释放轻罪治理潜能。

Abstract: The system of leniency for admitting guilt and accepting punishment plays an increasingly vital role in China’s misdemeanor governance. Taking drunk-driving cases as the entry point, this study draws on empirical data from 286 first-instance judgments in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Employing linear regression, Logistic regression, and propensity score matching, it systematically examines the sentencing effects and crime-governing functions of the leniency system for admitting guilt and accepting punishment. The study finds that admitting guilt and accepting punishment significantly shortens terms of criminal detention and increases the rate of probation application. The leniency effect is more substantial in cases with aggravating circumstances, consistent with the logic of differential deterrence. Baseline sentencing standards in the Pearl River Delta are notably lower than those in Shanghai, indicating diverging local judicial preferences. The 2023 new regulations promulgated by the Two Supreme Authorities and Two Ministries generate an independent overall leniency effect that complements the leniency-for-guilt-admission mechanism. While the system alleviates the labeling effect of short-term imprisonment through expanded probation use, the heterogeneity of “greater leniency for more serious circumstances” merits vigilance. Going forward, unified sentencing guidelines, broader application of non-custodial measures and the construction of tracking databases should be implemented to unlock the governance potential for misdemeanors.