基于SP调查的专车和共享单车竞争研究

SP Survey for the Study of Competition between Dedicated Cars and Shared Bikes

摘要: 为了更好的研究专车和共享单车的竞争关系，依据SP调查和正交设计的方法对用户在不同因素组合影响下的出行意愿进行调查。基于调查结果构建二元Logit模型，得出出行距离、气温、专车价格折扣、专车和共享单车订单成功率对居民出行选择的影响程度。并通过上海市作为算例得出结论，共享单车的逐步成熟对专车的短距离(3 km以内)出行市场确实构成一定冲击，且这一冲击具有一定季节性。

Abstract: To better study and analyze the competition between dedicated cars and shared bikes, this paper conducted a SP survey with orthogonal design on the passenger’s travel choices considering different influential factors such as temperature, distance, discount, etc. Binary Logit Choice Model were built based on the survey results, and the impact of trip distance, air temperature, price discount, and order successful matching rate were calibrated. Some key findings based on the experiment using data of Shanghai are: with shared bikes becoming more and more popular, fewer travelers would choose the short-distance dedicated cars for trips. And this impact presents obvious seasonal characteristics.