低频天气图在四川盆地强降水预报的应用研究
Application of Low Frequency of Heavy Precipitation Forecast Weather Map in the Sichuan Basin
DOI: 10.12677/AG.2018.83066, PDF,    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 刘洋, 肖天贵, 李培荣：成都信息工程大学大气科学学院，四川 成都
关键词: 四川盆地；低频天气图；低频关键区；预报模型；预报试验；Sichuan Basin； Low Frequency Synoptic Map； Low Frequency Key Zones； Forecast Model； Forecast Test
摘要: 本文所用资料为四川盆地2013~2017年夏季500 hPa风场资料、132站的逐日降水量资料，根据四川盆地的地理位置，绘制低频天气图，确定8个关键区，然后根据低频天气图方法，分析低频系统与夏季强降水的配置关系，建立适合四川盆地夏季强降水预报模型，用此方法对2017年6月~7月四川盆地强降水过程做预报试验，发现空报次数较多，要对模型前期预报的分析结果进行修订，这能大大提高预报的准确率。预报试验的预报结果和实况来对比，发现运用低频天气图方法对预报6月份的强降水过程效果要更好一些。
Abstract: This paper used the 500 hPa wind data in the summer form 2013 to 2017 and daily precipitation data of 132 stations of Sichuan basin to draw a low-frequency weather map and determine eight key areas according to geographical location of the Sichuan Basin. Then we analyzed the relation of low frequency system and summer precipitation by using the Low-frequency weather chart method and established a forecast model for Sichuan Basin summer heavy precipitation. We did a test of heavy precipitation forecast in Sichuan Basin by this method, and we found that there are many empty forecasts. Therefore, we must revise the advanced analytic result of forecast model to improve the accuracy of forecasts greatly. After comparing the results of forecast test with the actual results, we found that the effect by using the low-frequency weather map method for to forecast heavy precipitation in June is much better.
文章引用：刘洋, 肖天贵, 李培荣. 低频天气图在四川盆地强降水预报的应用研究[J]. 地球科学前沿, 2018, 8(3): 618-632. https://doi.org/10.12677/AG.2018.83066

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