基于人均GDP发展的中国餐饮业阶段性发展策略研究——美日韩三国餐饮发展历程对比视角

A Study on the Stage Development Strategy of Chinese Catering Industry Based on the Development of Per Capita GDP—Comparative Perspective on the Development of Catering in the United States, Japan and South Korea

摘要: 餐饮服务业作为第三产业，其发展的过程受经济发展水平的影响。通过借鉴发达国家餐饮业的发展经验，可以为中国餐饮业未来的发展提供前瞻性的意见，规避发展中可能出现的问题。本文以人均GDP作为衡量餐饮业发展时期的经济指标，以美日韩三个发达国家的餐饮业发展过程与中国餐饮业进行对比。本文使用简单时间序列平滑法，霍特指数平滑法，布朗指数平滑法以及阻尼趋势指数平滑法，以中国1978至2016年39年的人均GDP数据为基础，预测2017至2030年未来14年的人均GDP。研究结果表明，预计中国的人均GDP可能在2019年左右达到10,000美元水平，将可能出现较明显的跨国餐饮业发展趋势。在2026年左右人均GDP达到20,000美元水平，中国将可能进入本土餐饮业深化改造时代，健康化个性化餐饮需求出现。在2029年左右GDP达到30,000美元水平，将出现多元化个性化体验为主的餐饮业发展趋势。

Abstract: Food service industry as a tertiary industry, the process of its development is affected by economic development level. By studying the experiences of developed countries, it can provide suggestion to the development of China’s food service industry, which will help the food service industry avoiding possible problems during its development. In this study, per capita GDP will be used as an economic indicator to the development of the food service industry, at the beginning of the study, the development of the food service industry of USA, Japan and Korea will be concluded and compared to China. Then, the Simple Time Series Techniques, the Hough Index Smoothing Method and the Damping Trend Index Smoothing Method were used in the study to predict the per capita GDP of 2017 to 2030. Conclusion shows that China’s per capita GDP is expected to level of around $10,000 in 2019, multinational food service industry development will be the trend, which likely to be more apparent and industry will be rapidly developed leading by the emergence of the related problems, China’s food service industry should improve the comprehensive competitiveness of their own. Around 2026 per capita GDP will reach $20,000, China will be likely in the local food service industry deepening reform era, and personalized health food demand is appeared. Therefore, China’s food service industry should be combined with other leisure industry development. Around 2029 GDP will reach $30,000, there will be a diversification of personalized experience food service industry.