供给侧改革下农村剩余劳动力流动路径分析

Analysis of the Path of Rural Surplus Labor Flow under the Reform of Supply Side

摘要: 我国正处在供给侧改革的新时期，在此背景下研究我国农村剩余劳动力流动的发展现状以及困境，提出流动路径的选择有利于消化和转移农村剩余劳动力，提高人均资本拥有量，优化生产要素配置。该文章通过以新常态下的经济增长理论和新古典经济学派的劳动力流动理论为基础，分析中国农村剩余劳动力的流动现状和变化趋势，得出我国农村剩余劳动力以递减的速度流动，按照此发展趋势难以满足我国城市劳动力的需求；以及对流动方式分析得出中西部地区对农村剩余劳动力吸收能力也在不断增强，流动方式日趋多样化的结论。进而进一步分析供给侧改革背景下的农村剩余劳动力流动存在的困境，如劳动力素质与市场需求不符合、年龄结构存在不合理等，从而在提高农村剩余劳动力素质、完善社会保障体系和合理安排劳动要素等方面更好地优化农村剩余劳动力的路径选择。

Abstract: China is in the new era of supply-side reform. Under this background, the development status and dilemma of rural surplus labor mobility in China are studied. It is proposed that the choice of flow path is conducive to digesting and transferring rural surplus labor, improving per capita capital ownership and optimizing production factor configuration. Based on the economic growth theory under the new normal and the labor mobility theory of the neoclassical economics, this paper an-alyzes the current situation and trends of rural surplus labor in China, and concludes that China’s rural surplus labor flows are at a decreasing rate, according to this development. The trend is dif-ficult to meet the needs of China’s urban labor force; the analysis of the flow pattern shows that the ability of the central and western regions to absorb the surplus rural labor is also increasing, and the flow pattern is increasingly diversified. Furthermore, it further analyzes the predicament of rural surplus labor mobility under the background of supply-side reform, such as the incompatibility between labor quality and market demand, and the unreasonable age structure, thus improving the quality of rural surplus labor, improving the social security system and ra-tionally arranging labor. Factors such as factors better optimize the path choice of rural surplus labor.