轮回的困境：从利率震荡管窥阿根廷经济

Dilemma in Cycles: An Analysis of Argentina Economy from Interest Rate Volatility

摘要: 经济增速曾处于世界前列的阿根廷今日因超高利率引人注目。选取1979年至2018年阿根廷出现利率震荡和超高利率的时段并分析其历史及政策背景，通过对相关因素的归纳总结，可知阿根廷经济实际上陷入了“债务危机–资本外流–重新借债–以债发展”的恶性循环，超高利率在其中扮演的角色是政府应对汇率下跌、货币贬值所带来的通货膨胀问题的调控手段，在结构性问题面前仅是杯水车薪。在当前不公平、不均衡的国际经济秩序下不彻底摒弃完全依赖型的经济结构，阿根廷难逃历史轮回。

Abstract: Argentina, once one of the world’s fastest growing economies, stands out today for its super-high interest rates. This paper attempts to select and analyze the historical and policy background of Argentina’s interest rate volatility and ultra-high interest rate from 1979 to 2018. Through the summary of related factors, we can know that the economy actually fell into the history of reincar-nation of “the debt crisis-capital outflows-to borrow-debt development”. The role of ultra-high in-terest rate is the government’s control means to deal with the inflation caused by the falling ex-change rate and currency devaluation, which is only a drop in the bucket for structural problems. Under the current unfair and unbalanced international economic order, Argentina cannot escape the historical cycle without completely abandoning the completely dependent economic structure.