基于R分析我国进出口贸易对经济增长的影响

Analysis of the Impact of China’s Import and Export Trade on Economic Growth Based on R

摘要: 随着改革开放，中国在进出口贸易和经济发展方面都发生了巨大的变化，国家与国家之间贸易频繁，经济发展环境也有所改善。但是从最近几年的数据来看，中国进出口贸易对经济增长的作用并不是很大，反而有阻碍的作用。很大一部分原因可以归结为伴随着全球化的推进，世界各贸易国竞争激烈，贸易摩擦所涉及的行业呈现扩大的趋势使得贸易逆差总额进一步扩大的同时也使得社会整体福利降低。因此对于中国本国而言，其进出口贸易是应该扩大还是缩小，是一个值得研究的问题。本文用R软件建立模型对1990~2018年中国进口、出口贸易量的时间序列数据进行分析，来进一步研究中国进出口贸易与经济增长之间的关系，相应地提出了进出口贸易的建议和对策。

Abstract: With the reform and opening up, great changes have taken place in China’s import and export trade and economic development. However, according to the data in recent years, the role of China’s im-port and export trade in economic growth is not very big, on the contrary, it has an obstacle effect. A large part of the reason can be attributed to the fact that with the advancement of globalization, the world’s trading countries are facing fierce competition, and the industries involved in trade frictions are expanding, which not only further expands the total trade deficit, but also reduces the overall social welfare. Therefore, it is worth studying whether China’s import and export trade should be expanded or reduced. This paper uses R software to build a model to analyze the time series data of China’s import and export trade volume from 1990 to 2018, so as to further study the relationship between China’s import and export trade and economic growth, and put forward corresponding suggestions and Countermeasures for import and export trade.