股市参与、乐观主义与居民通货膨胀预期

Stock Market Participation, Optimism and Residents’ Inflation Expectations

摘要: 利用2011年CHFS数据，本文系统性地研究了居民个体股市参与和通胀预期之间的关系，以及在此过程中乐观主义的中介作用。研究发现个体的股市参与和通胀预期之间存在显著的负向关系，另外通过Iacobucci的中介效应检验方法以及分层回归发现，乐观情绪在这个影响过程中起显著的中介效应，同时信息选择调节了这种中介效应，在悲观群体中信息选择对通货膨胀预期的影响更显著，而在信息选择能力弱的群体中乐观主义情绪对通货膨胀预期的影响更显著。另外本文也检验了可能存在的内生性，增强了结论的可靠性和稳健性。因此维护股票市场稳定，提高居民金融知识水平，注重价格指数等相关信息的及时和准确，有利于民众形成稳定的价格预期。

Abstract: Using 2011 CHFS data, this paper systematically studies the relationship between individual residents’ stock market participation and inflation expectations, as well as the mediating role of optimism in this process. The study found that there is a significant negative relationship between individual stock market participation and inflation expectations. In addition, Iacobucci’s mediating effect test and stratified regression found that optimism has a significant mediating effect in this process, and information selection moderates the mediating effect. In pessimistic groups, information selection has a more significant impact on inflation expectations. The effect of optimism on inflation expectation is more significant in the group with weak information selection ability. In addition, we also examine the possible endogeneity, which enhances the reliability and robustness of the conclusion. Therefore, maintaining the stability of the stock market, improving the financial knowledge level of residents, and paying attention to timely and accurate information such as the price index are conducive to the formation of stable price expectations of the public.