救助策略下的SEIR金融风险传播动力学研究

Study on the Spread Dynamics of SEIR Financial Risks under the Bailout Strategy

摘要: 金融系统作为一个极其复杂的系统，各个金融主体通过金融交易建立起了非常紧密的关联关系，金融风险则会沿着这种联系蔓延从而给其他主体乃至整个系统带来危害。而在金融风险扩散过程中，正确的政策引导或救助，对金融机构市场抗击风险传播具有有效帮助。基于金融风险的传染和传染病的传染的相似性，以及可直接映射金融网络的复杂网络理论，本文构建了救助策略下的金融风险扩散SEIR模型，并分析了匀质网络和异质网络上传播动力学过程，得到对应一致的传播阈值(基本再生数)，并发现救助因素与基本再生数呈负相关关系。最后基于相关关系构建真实中国和美国股票网络，开展模拟仿真，对理论结构进行验证，并对模型参数的作用进行分析。本文研究结论为真实的金融市场的风险预警和管控提供重要的理论支撑。

Abstract: As an extremely complex system of a financial system, each financial subject has established a very closely related relationship through financial transactions, and financial risks will spread along this connection, thus bringing harm to other subjects and even the whole system. In the process of financial risk diffusion, the correct policy guidance or assistance has effective help to financial institutions to fight risk infection. Based on the similarity of financial risk infection and infectious diseases, and the complex network theory that can directly map the financial network, we constructed the financial risk diffusion SEIR model under the rescue strategy, analyzed the transmis-sion dynamics process on the homogeneous network and heterogeneous network, obtained the corresponding consistent transmission threshold (basic regeneration number), and found a negative correlation between rescue factors and the basic regeneration number. Finally, real Chinese and American stock networks are constructed based on correlations, simulation is carried out to verify the theoretical structure, and the role of model parameters is analyzed. The study and conclusion of this paper provide important theoretical support for risk warning and control in real financial markets.