财政转移支付“阻返”效应探析——基于慢性贫困与暂时性贫困视角

A Study on Effect of Avoiding Poverty Returning of Transfer Payment—Based on the Angles of Chronic Poverty and Transient Poverty

摘要: 基于慢性贫困与暂时性贫困视角，研究财政转移支付差别化“阻返”效应，有助于提高财政转移支付“瞄准”精度和扶贫成效。通过单期识别、跨期分类、实证研究，探析财政转移支付差别化“阻返”效应。发现：财政转移支付能显著抑制经历慢性贫困的脱贫家庭重返贫困，对经历暂时性贫困的脱贫家庭稳固脱贫有抑制性。在后续帮扶工作中，财政转移支付应侧重经历慢性贫困的脱贫家庭，为经历暂时性贫困的脱贫家庭探索实现稳固脱贫的多元方略。

Abstract: Transfer payment has effects of avoiding poverty returning for families out of poverty, it could help to improve the aiming precision of transfer payment, prevent families out of poverty from returning poverty, and improve the quality of poverty alleviation by studying these effects from the angles of chronic poverty and transient poverty. Based on previous conditions of families out of poverty, this paper discerns different categories of families out of poverty by discerning multidimensional poverty in single period, classifying chronic poverty and transient poverty in multiple periods, and regresses the different effects of avoiding poverty returning of transfer payment on families out of poverty that experienced chronic poverty and transient poverty. Conclusions are as follows: Trans-fer payment could prevent families out of poverty that experienced chronic poverty from returning poverty remarkably, but prevent families out of poverty that experienced transient poverty from overcoming poverty stably. Therefore, transfer payment policies should pay enough attention to identifying different poverty experience of families out of poverty and differentiated implementation of transfer payment policies should be paid enough attention to families out of poverty that experienced chronic poverty, and explore other strategies for stable poverty alleviation for families out of poverty that experienced transient poverty.