新时代共建一带一路背景下中国战略支点国家研究

Research on China’s Strategic Pivot Country under the Belt and Road Initiative in New Era

摘要: 截至2020年1月底，中国已同140个国家(地区)和30个国际组织签署200份共建“一带一路”合作文件，多个国际合作项目落地，在肯定“一带一路”战略受到国际认同和取得一定成果的同时，也要意识到当前“一带一路”战略面临外部性、结构性和波动性风险。如何选取“一带一路”沿线战略支点实现战略资源精准投放和有效对接，确保支点国家和重点项目优先发展，是当前头等大事。现阶段学术界对“支点国家”的讨论取得了相应的进展，然而对“支点国家”做严格学术分析定义和制定判别标准的研究仍较为缺失。以上问题，本文试图从全新的视角，通过具体的理论，分析支点国家的概念；并根据新的界定方法，综合选取、甄别、筛选出“一带一路”沿线支点国家指标体系，并提出双边未来重点合作方向，期待在这一新框架下，展开更深入的关于支点国家的理论与实证研究。

Abstract: At the end of January 2020, China has signed 200 cooperation documents for the joint construction of the BRI with 140 countries (regions) and 30 international organizations. While achieving certain results, we must also be aware that the current BRI is facing externality, structural and volatility risks. How to select strategic fulcrums along the BRI to realize the precise deployment and effective connection of strategic resources, and to ensure the priority development of pivot countries and key projects is the current top priority. At the present stage, the academic circles have made corresponding progress in the discussion of the pivot country, but the research on the rigorous academic analysis and definition of the pivot country and the establishment of the criterion is still lacking. For the above issues, this article attempts to analyze the concept of pivotal countries from a new perspective and through specific theories; and based on the new definition method, comprehensively selects, screens, and screens the list of pivotal countries along the BRI, and proposes key bilateral cooperation in the future. It is expected that more in-depth theoretical and empirical research on fulcrum countries will be carried out under this new framework.