蒙古国人口迁移的时空特征及其城镇化效应

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Population Migration in Mongolia and Its Urbanization Effect

摘要: 近年来，蒙古国的人口迁移上升趋势明显，是少有的城镇化水平较高但经济发展水平落后的亚洲国家。基于蒙古国国家统计局于2020年公布的、时间跨度长达70年的最新人口调查数据，并以其历年来的统计年鉴数据和世界银行数据库中的相关数据作为补充，通过定性与定量分析法、统计分析法、GIS空间分析技术和遥感动态监测技术，详细分析蒙古国人口迁移的时空变化特征，深入探讨城镇化效应下蒙古国人口、经济和土地的城镇化水平。结果显示：1) 蒙古国人口迁移规模总体呈快速增长的态势，春夏秋季迁移人口较多，冬季迁移人口较少；2) 人口分布的地区差异性十分明显，大都为由本地区向乌兰巴托、中部地区和杭爱地区迁移为主，而向东部地区、西部地区的迁移较少，同时近20年来本省和本地区内人口迁移的比例普遍提高；3) 近半个世纪以来蒙古国的人口城镇化、经济城镇化和土地城镇化水平皆有所增长，且近20年来增长迅速；城镇化水平在乌兰巴托最高，中部地区和杭爱地区次之，在西部地区和东部地区则较低；城镇化水平的发展皆与其人口迁移的时空特征相一致。蒙古国应优化产业结构，大力推进各地区的开发与建设，同时提高政策的连续性和稳定性，加强对外开放和交流合作，以推动区域均衡化、可持续发展。

Abstract: In recent years, the upward trend of population migration in Mongolia is obvious, and it is a rare Asian country with high urbanization level but backward economic development. Based on the latest population survey data published by the National Bureau of Statistics of Mongolia in 2020 with a time span of 70 years, and with its statistical yearbook data over the years and relevant data in the World Bank database as a supplement, through qualitative and quantitative analysis, statistical analysis, GIS spatial analysis technology and remote sensing dynamic monitoring technology, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of population migration in Mongolia, and probes into the urbanization level of population, economy and land in Mongolia under the effect of urbanization. The results showed that: 1) The migration scale of Mongolian population showed a rapid growth trend. The migration population was more in spring, summer and autumn, and less in winter. 2) The regional differences in population distribution are very obvious. Most of them migrate from the region to Ulaanbaatar, the central region and Hangai region, while the migration to the eastern region and the western region is less. At the same time, the proportion of population migration in the province and the region has generally increased in the past 20 years. 3) The level of population urbanization, economic urbanization and land urbanization in Mongolia has increased in the past half century, and has grown rapidly in the past 20 years; the level of urbanization in Ulaanbaatar is the highest, followed by the central region and Hangai region, and lower in the western region and eastern region; the development of urbanization level is consistent with the spatial and temporal characteristics of population migration. Mongolia should optimize the industrial structure, vigorously promote the development and construction of various regions, improve the continuity and stability of policies, strengthen opening up and exchanges and cooperation, in order to promote regional balanced and sustainable development.