B2C模式下的负外部性与城市垃圾处理——基于灰色模型预测分析

Negative Externality and Urban Waste Treatment in B2C Mode—Prediction Analysis Based on Grey Model

摘要: B2C电子商务模式(Business-to-Consumer)是我国消费方式转型与经济信息化的重要体现。本研究基于灰色模型预测理论，将城市垃圾清运量、B2C市场规模、城市垃圾投资额、阿里巴巴买家活跃人数进行数据预测，运用Tobit模型进行回归分析。结果显示，B2C模式对城市环境有显著的负外部性。研究建议，在绿色经济与可持续发展的宏观背景下，应建立并完善网购垃圾处理的规章制度，提升垃圾处理参与主体的意识及能力，加强科技创新投入以提高垃圾处理效率。

Abstract: B2C e-commerce model (Business-to-Consumer) is an important manifestation of China’s consump-tion pattern transformation and economic informatization. Based on the grey model prediction theory, this study predicts the amount of urban garbage cleaning, B2C market size, urban garbage investment, the number of active buyers in Alibaba, and uses Tobit model for regression analysis. The results show that the B2C pattern has significant negative externalities on the urban environ-ment. It is suggested that under the macro background of green economy and sustainable devel-opment, the rules and regulations for online shopping waste treatment should be established and improved, the awareness and ability of the participants in waste treatment should be enhanced, and the investment in scientific and technological innovation should be strengthened to improve the efficiency of waste treatment.