基于层次分析法的遥田镇地质灾害危险性评价

Risk Assessment of Geological Hazards in Yaotian Town Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

摘要: 在充分研究新丰县遥田镇地质灾害孕灾环境的基础上，以多源遥感数据和基础地质数据为数据源，选择灾害点分布密度、坡度指标、高程指标、工程地质岩组、断裂构造、人类工程活动、降雨和道路指标八个因子。利用GIS提取因子信息，采用层次分析法建立评价因子及其类型的判断矩阵，构建地质灾害危险性评价指数，对遥田镇地质灾害危险性进行评价和分区，划分出低、中、高危险区3类分区并完成精度检验。结果表明：① 低危险区的面积占全镇总面积的35%，主要分布在遥田镇中北部的丘陵区；中危险区面积约占全镇总面积的43%，主要分布在南部丘陵地带，遥田镇以西和道路周边地区；高危险区占全镇总面积的22%，主要集中分布在河流两侧以及山区地区。② 成功率曲线和受试者工作特征曲线与横轴围成的面积分别为0.75和0.88，检验结果精度较好；灾害点密度从低危险区到高危险区呈增加趋势，灾害点密度达到了0.56个/km²。③ AHP方法适用于遥田镇地质灾害危险性评价，评价结果可为遥田镇地质灾害的防范与治理提供一定的参考依据。

Abstract: On the basis of fully studying the geological disaster-pregnancy environment in Yaotian Town, Xinfeng County, using multi-source remote sensing data and basic geological data as data sources, and eight factors including distribution density of disaster points, slope index, elevation index, engineering geological rock group, fracture structure, human engineering activities, rainfall and road index were selected. The factor information is extracted by GIS, and the analytic hierarchy process is used to establish a judgment matrix of evaluation factors and their types, and a geological disaster risk evaluation index is constructed to evaluate the geological disaster risk of Yaotian Town. And partition, divide into three types of low, medium and high-risk areas and complete the accuracy test. The results show that: ① The low-risk area accounts for 35% of the whole town’s area, and it is mainly distributed in the hilly area in the middle and north of Yaotian Town; the medium-risk area accounts for about 43% of the whole town’s area, and it is mainly distributed in the southern hilly area, the west of Yaotian Town and areas around the road; the high-risk area accounts for 22% of the whole town’s area, mainly distributed in both sides of the river and in mountainous areas. ② The areas enclosed by the success rate curve and the receiver operating characteristic curve and the horizontal axis are 0.75 and 0.88, respectively, and the test results have good accuracy; the density of disaster points increases from low-risk area to high-risk area, and the density of disaster points reaches 0.56 pieces/km². ③ The AHP method is suitable for the risk assessment of geological disasters in Yaotian Town, and the evaluation results can provide a certain reference for the prevention and control of geological disasters in Yaotian Town.