青岛地区地震灾害和危险性研究

Study on Seismic Hazard and Risk in Qingdao Area

摘要: 地震作为一种突发性的自然灾害，严重危及人类的生命财产安全。本文结合概率地震危险性分析与确定性灾害分析两种方法，采用了Composite Source Model模型，从未来地震发生概率、所受影响范围及地震影响程度上评估青岛地区未来地震灾害。研究表明，按照目前的地震活动趋势，青岛地区未来100年发生6.0级地震超越概率为7%，青岛市区、即墨东部均在0.20 g等震线以内。沧口断裂、马山–王哥庄断裂附近的重点建筑应考虑≥0.20 g峰值加速度对工程的影响，在这两条断裂附近的重要建筑应考虑0.20 g作为建筑基本地震工程设防参数。

Abstract: As a kind of sudden natural disaster, earthquake seriously endangers the safety of human life and property. In this paper, the research adopts the Composite Source Model based on the combination of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and deterministic hazard analysis. The future earthquake disaster in Qingdao area is evaluated from the probability of the future earthquake, the extent of the affected area and the impact of the earthquake in this paper. The study shows that the occurrence of Ms 6.0 earthquake exceedance probability is 7 percent in the next 100 years in Qingdao area in accordance with the current trend of seismic activity. Qingdao city, east of Jimo city are all within 0.20 g isoseismal. The important constructions near the Cankou fault and Mashan-Wanggezhuang fault should consider the influence of ≥0.20 g peak acceleration. The 0.20 g peak acceleration should be considered as a basic building seismic fortification parameter in the vicinity of the two faults.