我国教育实证研究十年发展趋势——基于大样本系统随机抽样的分析

Trend of Empirical Research in Education in China—A Systematic Random Selection Based on Large Sample

摘要: 教育实证研究在我国受到越来越多的关注，尤其自2015年起多方力量大力推动教育研究实证化。以往研究普遍发现我国教育实证研究在过去20年呈现增长趋势，但因取样范围小、判断标准单一等原因，其结果的参考性有所受限。为提供更加全面、高质量的教育实证研究评价，本研究采用系统随机抽样，对2012年到2021年全部重要教育期刊(包含CSSCI和北大核心来源期刊)所发表的35,784篇潜在实证研究进行了摘要和原文分析。结果发现：1) 相较于以往常用的关键词分析，摘要分析能更准确地判断研究的属性；2) 过去十年符合通用标准的教育实证研究的发表数量实际约占总数的15.6%，远低于以往研究汇报的相关数值；3) 2015年后，教育实证研究的发文增长率几乎没有变化。因此，亟待完善相关研究的投稿与评审机制、提供透明的评审规范和标准，以全面提升教育实证研究的发文数量与质量，促进教育实证研究在我国的深入发展，提升我国教育实证研究的国际影响力。

Abstract: Empirical research has drawn increasingly attention in education field in China, especially since 2015 when numerous parties joined together to promote empirical research. Previous studies showed that the number of empirical studies in education went up in the past 20 years, however, the results might be limited due to small sample size and single evaluation criteria. The current study used a systematic random sampling method to analyze 35,784 potential empirical research articles published in all key education journals (including Core and C-SSCI Journals) from 2012 to 2021. The results showed that, 1) compared to keyword analysis, abstract analysis could more accurately determine whether a study was an empirical research; 2) the actual proportion of empirical research in education was approximately 15.6% in the past 10 years, much lower than the results from previous studies; 3) the growth rate of empirical research in education has remained almost unchanged before and after 2015. Therefore, it is urgent to improve the contribution and review mechanism of relevant research, provide transparent review norms and standards, so as to comprehensively improve the quantity and quality of documents of educational empirical research, promote the further development of educational empirical research in our country, and enhance the international influence of educational empirical research in our country.