七星关区乡镇温度预报订正研究

Study on Revision of Township Temperature Forecast in Qixingguan

摘要: 为提高七星关区乡镇最高最低温度的预报准确率，科学指导本地精细化温度预报服务，本文基于ArcGIS技术绘制了最高最低温度的时空分布图，采用数理统计和最小二乘法，建立了各乡镇各季节最高最低温度预报模型，并进行了检验。结果表明：七星关区最高最低温度的空间分布与海拔高度基本一致，其中最低气温和海拔高度相关性较高；最高温度的时空分布呈东北、西南部边缘高，中部低，季节性差异较明显，最低温度的时空分布总体为东北向西南逐渐升高，季节性差异不明显。预报模型检验结果显示，七星关区乡镇最低温度预报优于最高温度预报，不同季节的预报准确率为秋季 > 春季 > 冬季 > 夏季，最高温度中春季预报效果最好，最低温度中秋季预报效果最好。

Abstract: In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the highest and lowest temperatures in Qixingguan, and provide scientific guidance for the local fine temperature prediction service, this paper draws the spatial and temporal distribution map of the highest and lowest temperatures based on ArcGIS technology. Mathematical statistics and least square method were used to establish and test sea-sonal prediction model for the highest and lowest temperatures of township in Qixingguan. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the highest and lowest temperatures in Qixingguan was basically consistent with the altitude, and the correlation between the lowest temperature and the altitude was high, the spatial and temporal distribution of the highest temperature was higher in the northeast and southwest and lower in the middle, the seasonal difference was obvious. The spa-tial and temporal distribution of the lowest temperature was gradually rising from northeast to southwest, and the seasonal difference was not obvious. The model test results showed that the lowest temperature forecast in Qixingguan was better than the highest temperature forecast. The accuracy of the forecast in different seasons was autumn > spring > winter > summer. The forecast effect of spring was the best in the highest temperature, and the forecast effect of autumn was the best in the lowest temperature.