基于面板数据模型的环渤海区域碳排放达峰机制分析

Analysis of Carbon Emission Peaking Mechanism in the Bohai Rim Region Based on Panel Data Model

摘要: 随着全球气候变化问题的日益严峻，各国都在寻求减少碳排放的有效途径。中国作为世界上最大的碳排放国，其实现碳排放达峰的目标对全球碳减排至关重要。本文聚焦于环渤海区域，采用面板数据模型，结合经济增长、能源消耗、产业结构、人口规模、技术进步等因素对碳排放的影响，分析并探讨了这些因素在不同省份和城市间的差异性以及环渤海区域碳排放达峰机制。研究发现，环渤海区域的碳排放与经济增长之间存在“倒U形”关系，与能源消耗、产业结构和人口规模之间存在正向关系，而与技术进步之间存在负向相关。同时，区域内不同省份在碳排放强度、能源消耗和产业结构方面存在显著差异，这对制定区域性减排策略具有重要意义。此外，本文基于模型结果还提出了相应的政策建议，包括优化能源结构、促进产业升级转型、加强技术创新和实施差异化的区域减排策略，这对实现环渤海区域乃至全国低碳发展具有重要意义。

Abstract: As the severity of global climate change intensifies, countries worldwide are seeking effective ways to reduce carbon emissions. China, as the largest carbon emitter globally, plays a crucial role in the global effort to peak and reduce carbon emissions. This study focuses on the Bohai Rim region and employs a panel data model to analyze the impacts of economic growth, energy consumption, industrial structure, population size, and technological progress on carbon emissions. It explores the variations of these factors across different provinces and cities and their mechanisms in peaking carbon emissions in the Bohai Rim area. The findings indicate a “reverse U-shaped” relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in the region. There is a positive correlation with energy consumption, industrial structure and population size, and a negative correlation with technological progress in the Bohai Rim region. Significant regional differences in carbon emission intensity, energy consumption, and industrial structure within the area highlight the importance of tailored regional emission reduction strategies. Furthermore, the study proposes policy recommendations based on its findings, including optimizing energy structure, promoting industrial upgrading, enhancing technological innovation, and implementing differentiated regional emission reduction strategies, which are vital for achieving low-carbon development in the Bohai Rim region and nationwide.