化隆地区短时强降水特征及概念模型

Characteristics and Conceptual Model of Short-Time Heavy Precipitation in Hualong Area

摘要: 基于化隆地区国家气象观测站以及区域气象观测站2018~2023年逐小时降水数据，高低空观测数据以及FY-4A红外卫星云图等，运用天气学分析方法、数理常规统计方法、“配料法”中尺度分析技术，对化隆地区短时强降水时空分布特征及概念模型进行研究。结果表明：1) 化隆地区短时强降水呈逐年增长趋势；8月为短时强降水高发期且易出现极端值；短时强降水与地形关系密切，主要出现在中西部地区。2) 高空冷平流强迫类具有明显的水汽特征，湿层较其余两类天气型更深厚。3) 8月更容易出现高空冷平流强迫类和低层暖平流强迫类的短时强降水，斜压锋生类主要出现在9月。4) 细长型的CAPE配合中等偏强的垂直风切变，造成的短时强降水局地性更强，然而CAPE数值的大小与小时降水量无关。

Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation data, high and low altitude observation data and FY-4A infrared satellite cloud image of the national meteorological observation station and regional meteorological observation station in Hualong area from 2018 to 2023, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and conceptual model of short-time heavy precipitation in Hualong area were studied by using the weather analysis method, the mathematical conventional statistical method and the mesoscale analysis technology of the “batching method”. The results show that: 1) The short-time heavy precipitation in Hualong area showed an increasing trend year by year. August is the period of high occurrence of short-time heavy precipitation and is prone to extreme values. Short-time heavy precipitation is closely related to topography and mainly occurs in the central and western regions. 2) The upper cold advection forcing weather has obvious water vapor characteristics, and the wet layer is deeper than that of the other two. 3) Short-time heavy precipitation with upper cold advection forcing and low-level warm advection forcing is more likely to occur in August, and baroclinic frontophytes mainly occur in September. 4) The short-time heavy precipitation caused by the slender CAPE combined with moderately strong vertical wind shear is stronger, but the CAPE value is independent of the hourly rainfall intensity.