基于PMIP模式的近千年亚洲–太平洋变化特征研究

Study on the Variability Characteristics of Asian-Pacific for the Past Millennium Based on PMIP Models

摘要: 本文利用美国国家环境预报中心–国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR) 1958~2000年月平均温度再分析资料和古气候模拟比较计划(PMIP)中的12个模式的过去千年模拟结果以及对应的历史模拟结果，通过多模式集合平均值(MEM)、泰勒图、EOF分析以及相关分析等统计分析方法，对PMIP模式对过去千年APO的水平结构和垂直结构的模拟能力进行了评估，并对过去千年APO的变化特征进行了分析，结果表明：1) PMIP各模式能够较好模拟亚洲–太平洋地区对流层中上层扰动温度的水平与垂直分布，且模式对APO垂直结构的模拟能力优于对水平结构的模拟能力；2) APO的主要特征表现为亚洲地区与北太平洋地区之间表现出明显的扰动温度正负异常中心，其中正异常中心位于亚洲地区，而负异常中心则位于北太平洋地区；3) 过去千年间，亚洲地区与北太平洋地区对流层上层扰动温度之间同样存在反相位结构，表明过去千年APO这一遥相关同样存在，且过去千年APO分布和覆盖范围与当代基本一致，但在APO强度的年际变化上，过去千年要比近几十年更加剧烈。

Abstract: This study utilizes monthly average temperature reanalysis data from 1958 to 2000 provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the past millennium simulation results from twelve models in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), along with their corresponding historical simulation results. Using statistical analysis methods such as multi-model ensemble mean (MEM), Taylor diagrams, EOF analysis, and correlation analysis, the study evaluates the ability of PMIP models to simulate the horizontal and vertical structures of APO over the past millennium and analyzes the variation characteristics of APO during this period. The results indicate that: 1) The PMIP models can effectively simulate the horizontal and vertical distribution of perturbed temperatures in the mid-to-upper troposphere of the Asian-Pacific region, with better performance in simulating the vertical structure than the horizontal structure of APO; 2) The main characteristic of APO is the significant centers of positive and negative perturbed temperature anomalies between the Asian region and the North Pacific region, with the positive anomaly center located in Asia and the negative anomaly center in the North Pacific; 3) Over the past millennium, an out-of-phase structure of perturbed temperatures in the upper troposphere between the Asian region and the North Pacific region similarly existed, indicating that the teleconnection phenomenon of APO was also present during this period. The distribution and coverage area of APO over the past millennium were fundamentally consistent with those of the present day, but the interannual variability in the intensity of APO was more pronounced over the past millennium than in recent decades.