投资者情绪与基金收益的关系研究——以基金净值变动为着眼点

Research on the Relationship between Investor Sentiment and Fund Returns—A Focus on Fund Net Asset Value Changes

摘要: 本研究探索了投资者情绪对开放式基金收益的影响及其作用机制。研究结果显示，我国开放式基金的收益受到投资者情绪的显著影响。通过构建中介效应模型分析投资者情绪对基金业绩的路径，发现基金净值变动率与基金收益之间存在关系：基金净值变动率较大的基金表现出比基金净值变动率较小的基金更好的收益。研究还揭示了投资者情绪与基金收益之间显著的正相关关系，尤其是当投资者情绪积极时，会显著促进基金的净值，从而提升基金的收益水平。

Abstract: This study explores the impact of investor sentiment on the returns of open-end funds and its underlying mechanisms. The research findings indicate that the returns of open-end funds in China are significantly influenced by investor sentiment. By constructing a mediation model to analyze the pathways through which investor sentiment affects fund performance, it was found that there is a relationship between the net asset value (NAV) change rate of funds and fund returns: funds with higher NAV change rates demonstrate better returns compared to those with lower NAV change rates. The study also reveals a significant positive correlation between investor sentiment and fund returns, especially highlighting that positive investor sentiment significantly promotes fund NAV, thereby enhancing fund returns.