标题:
沁河流域汛期降水变化规律研究Study on Variation Law of Precipitation in Flood Season in the Qinhe River Basin
作者:
王珍珍, 黄领梅, 沈冰
关键字:
沁河流域, 汛期降水, 累计距平, 信噪比, 滑动平均, 小波分析Precipitation in Flood Season; Accumulative Anomaly; Signal to Noise Ratio; Moving Average; Wavelet Analysis
期刊名称:
《Journal of Water Resources Research》, Vol.1 No.6, 2012-11-20
摘要:
利用沁河流域18个雨量站1971~2008年共38a汛期逐日降水资料，分别采用滑动平均法、累计距平、信噪比及小波分析等方法，研究了降水的趋势性及周期性变化。结果表明，38a来汛期降水量以7.89 mm/10a速率呈小幅的下降趋势；汛期降水不存在突变现象；年降水存在着27a、22a、6a及9a的主周期变化，27a周期振荡最为强烈。经预测，沁河流域在2008年后的一段时期内可能处于一个降水偏少期。
Based on daily precipitation in flood season dataset of 18 stations in the Qinhe River basin during 1971-2008, the trend and periodicity variation of precipitation in flood season were analyzed by using meth- ods of moving average, accumulative anomaly, ratio of signal to noise and wavelet analysis. The main results are as follows: the precipitation in flood season declined at a speed of 7.89 mm/10ain recent 38 years, but changes in amplitude are not significant; the precipitation in flood season doesn’t exist mutation phenomenon; the annual precipitation has 27, 22, 6 and 9 years periods, and the oscillation in 27 years were the most in- tense. The study forecast that the annual average precipitation in the Qinhe River basin maybe in the dry pe- riod after 2008.