标题:
内蒙古多伦地区降雨量预报模型研究Precipitation Prediction Model in the Duolun Area, Inner Mongolia
作者:
苏建伟, 沈冰, 贾宪
关键字:
年降雨量, 时间序列, 模拟, 预报, ARMA模型Annual Rain-Fall; Time Series; Imitation, Prediction; ARMA Modal
期刊名称:
《Journal of Water Resources Research》, Vol.1 No.6, 2012-11-20
摘要:
本文利用自回归滑动平均模型(ARMA)对多伦地区多年降雨量数据进行分析,进行时间序列模拟,建立了ARMA模型,验证了该模型在研究区的适用性,并用该模型对多伦地区未来2~3年的降雨量进行预测,并分析了该模型的利弊,为该区生产生活服务。
We use the ARMA model to analyze rainfall data of Duolun, and use the established ARMA model to verify the applicability of the model and to predict the next 2 to 3 years rainfall in the Duolun region for the production and life.