基于MRS-GARCH模型的期货铜价格波动的预测

Prediction of Futures Copper PriceFluctuation Based on MRS-GARCH Model

摘要: 随着铜被广泛的使用，铜在我国国民经济的发展中起着重要的作用，然而,铜的价格波动却是十分频繁，这不但给铜的生产和销售环节带来了巨大的风险，而且对我国经济的平稳运行产生了巨大的冲击。因此，本文提出基于MRS-GARCH模型对铜的收益率波动进行研究，利用损失函数来比较MRS-GARCH模型、GARCH模型、EGARCH模型以及GJR-GARCH模型对铜的收益率波动预测表现的好坏。结果表明MRS-GARCH模型的预测效果在总体上要优于GARCH模型、EGARCH模型和GJR-GARCH模型。其中MRS-GARCH-N模型是所有MRS-GARCH模型中预测效果最好的模型。

Abstract: Since copper is widely used, copper plays an important role in the development of our national economy. However, fluctuations in the price of copper is very frequent, which not only brings huge risk to the production and sales of copper, but also has a huge impact on the stable operation of China’s economy. Therefore, this paper proposes the MRS-GARCH model of the return volatility of copper based on study, compared to the MRS-GARCH model, GARCH model, EGARCH model and GJR-GARCH model for copper volatility forecasting performance by the quality loss function. The results show that the prediction effect of MRS-GARCH model is better than GARCH model, EGARCH model and GJR-GARCH model. The MRS-GARCH-N model is the best prediction model in all MRS-GARCH models.