河西走廊地区水资源脆弱性评价及阈值分析

Assessment and Threshold Value Analysis of Water Resources Vulnerability in Hexi Corridor

摘要: 我国河西走廊地区水生态问题引人关注，对该地区水资源脆弱性评价和脆弱性阈值分析具有十分重要的研究意义。首先利用压力–状态–响应(pressure-state-response，简称PSR)框架，构建水资源脆弱性指标体系；其次分别运用模糊聚类法和层次分析法得出各指标的聚类中心和权重；然后对现状年2010年和对比年2003年进行河西走廊地区水资源脆弱性评价；最后设置不同的发展模式，计算水资源脆弱性阈值。结果表明：现状年下河西走廊地区水资源脆弱性值为68.24，为重度脆弱状态；黑河、疏勒河、石羊河三个流域为重度脆弱状态，且脆弱性依次加重；研究区域水资源脆弱性阈值上限为89.07，处于极脆弱状态，水资源脆弱性阈值下限为30.76，处于轻度脆弱状态。

Abstract: Because water ecological problems of Hexi Corridor in China are becoming more and more serious, it is very important to study water resources vulnerability of this area. Firstly, we construct water resources vulnerability assessment index system based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model. Secondly, we use the fuzzy clustering method to draw cluster centers of the PSR indicators and use analytic hierarchy process to calculate the index weight value. Finally, we evaluate water resources vulnerability in Hexi Corridor in the status year of 2010 and the comparison year of 2003; we acquire the vulnerability threshold based on two different development models. The results show that water resources vulnerability in Hexi Corridor is 68.24, belonging to heavy fragile state; water resources vulnerabilities in Hei River, Shule River basin, and Shiyang River basin are heavy fragile fragile state; Hei River, Shule River basin, and Shiyang River basin’s vulnerabilities aggravated orderly; the upper limit threshold value of water resources vulnerability in the research area is 89.07, belonging to very fragile state; the lower limit threshold value is 30.76, belonging to slightly fragile state.