三峡库区近百年来气温变化特征

The Variation Characteristics of Temperature in the Three Georges Reservoir Area During the Past Nearly 100 Years

摘要: 利用1924—2011年重庆和宜昌站气温资料，分析了三峡库区近百年来气温变化特征，结果表明：从线性趋势、年代变化、突变和周期分析表明近88年重庆和宜昌气温的变化特征是比较一致的，两段显著偏暖的时期分别是20世纪20年代中期至40年代和20世纪90年代中期至今。用重庆和宜昌站的平均来代表三峡库区，库区气温阶段变化与重庆、宜昌站基本一致，20世纪90年代中后期至今出现的显著增温现象迟于我国1986年前后开始的普遍增温。库区各季节气温变化存在差异，四个季节最近一次增暖主要集中在20世纪90年代中期或中后期。近88年来三峡库区年平均气温发生两次突变，1947年左右突变为降温趋势；1996年左右突变为增暖趋势。三峡库区年平均气温2～4 a周期变化最为显著，4 a左右的周期1980年代后期开始显著。1920年代到1980年代存在的16～20 a的年代际周期，但能量较年际周期弱。近88年三峡库区与全球气温变化存在较大差异，最近一次显著增暖时间比较，三峡库区比全球滞后约10年。

Abstract: By using the Three Gorges reservoir area’s temperature data of the Chongqing and Yichang station(from 1924 to 2011), the variation characteristics of temperature in the Three Georges Reservoir Area during the past 88 years are analyzed .The results demonstrate : the linear trend, decadal variation, sudden change and the cycle analysis shows that the temperature changing characteristics of Chongqing station and Yichang is highly the same in the last 88 years, the two significantly warmer periods are the mid-1920s to the 1940s and the mid-1990s to the present. The Three Gorges reservoir area can be represented by the average values of Chongqing and Yichang, the temperature change in phases of the reservoir area is basically the same with Chongqing, Yichang. The significant warming phenomenon appeared since the late 1990s is later than the China average warming stared at the year around 1986. The seasonal temperature changes have some differences, the latest warming of the four seasons mainly concentrated in periods of the mid-1990s and later 1990s. There are two sudden changes of the Three Gorges reservoir area’s temperature during the recent 88 years: one is a cooling trend around the year 1947, one is a warming trend around 1996. The 2 – 4 a cycle changes of the Three Gorges reservoir area’s average temperature is the most significant, the 4a cycle changes are becoming very significant since the later 1980s.There is a 16 – 20 a decadal period between the 1920s and the 1980s, but its energy is weaker than the annual period. The Three Gorges reservoir area’s temperature changes are different with the global temperature changes greatly during the past 88 years, comparing the latest significant warming time, the former is about 10 years behind the later.