太湖西苕溪流域水文序列突变检测比较和分析研究

Change-Point Detection and Analysis of Hydrological Time Series in Xitiaoxi River Basin

摘要: 探索流域水文变点可发现其水文演变规律，为水资源的可持续利用提供科学指导。本文以太湖流域的重要水源西苕溪流域为研究对象，在5%显著性水平下，采用Mann-Kendall、Pettitt、滑动T检验、Yamamoto、差积曲线–秩检验联合识别法等分析和比较了1972~2010年流域降水和径流的变点。结果表明：西苕溪流域降水和径流的变点均发生在1999年，该结果为进一步甄别气候变化和人类活动的贡献率提供了研究基础。

Abstract: The change-point analysis of hydrological time series would help to find the evolution of hydrological processes and provide the scientific guidance for sustainable utilization of water resources. As the crucial headwaters of Taihu Lake basin, Xitiaoxi River basin was chosen as the study case. Under the significance level 5%, Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, Moving T test, Yamamoto and the residual mass curve combined rank test methods were applied to compare and analyze the change-point of precipitation and streamflow from 1972 to 2010 in the basin. It is found that the change-point of precipitation and streamflow time series both happened at the year 1999 in Xitiaoxi River basin. The result would provide the basis for the further studies on identification for the impact of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes.