房地产投机度测量研究—以昆明为例

Speculative Degree Measurement Research of the Real Estate Market—Taking Kunming as the Example

摘要: 在房价波动影响的因素中，投机行为是关键因素之一。本文将房地产价格分为资本收益为零时的房地产价格和投机性价格两部分，引入投机度模型测定房地产投机度。以昆明为样本，实证研究昆明房地产市场投机度为0.3077，大于国内外学术界普遍认为的投机度警戒线0.2，表明昆明房地产市场存在较为严重的投机行为。短期贷款利率对房价存在负向影响，且这种影响存在滞后性，影响效果不显著，利用利率来调控房价具有较大风险。

Abstract: Speculation is one of the key factors which impact price fluctuations. The real estate price is divided into the price when capital gains are zero and the speculative price in this paper, and speculative model is introduced to measure the degree of speculation. The empirical study taking Kunming as an example shows that the degree of speculation in the property market of Kunming is 0.3077, 0.2 greater than that the domestic and foreign academic circles generally believe. It is illustrated that there is serious speculation of real estate in Kunming. There is more risk if using interest rate to control the housing price, because the short-term loan rate has a negative impact which is lagging and the effect is not significant.