城市间多种交通方式通行经济分析

Economic Analysis for Multiple Transportation Modes of Intercity Travel

摘要: 城市群背景下新型城镇化进程的加快，大城市及城际间的交通拥堵现象日趋严重，其中很大一部分原因是外地车辆大量涌入大城市。针对这一问题可以从限制私家车和鼓励公交两方面进行考虑，一方面是大城市的私家车需缴纳一定的费用购置车牌来获得道路通行权，因此管理城市外来车辆可以通过城际高速公路区交通通行权采取收费的市场化经济手段来达到限制通行的目的；另一方面，采取多种手段鼓励城市间公交出行，如收取小汽车拥挤费、外地车通行费等市场化方法以及停车换乘方式。因此，在鼓励公交、限制私家车前提下，考虑城市间三种交通方式：小汽车、小汽车停车换乘公交、高铁，首先给出包含出行费用和时间成本的路径广义费用函数，构造基于随机效用理论的离散选择模型，并求解不同收费费用组合下各出行模式的交通流量分配情况，最后利用数值分析更直观地展现各交通方式交通流量的变化情况。结果显示，通过经济手段来优化交通方式结构是可行的。

Abstract: With the acceleration of the urbanization process, traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious in big cities, and mostly is due to the massive influx of non-local vehicles. About this issue, two aspects can be considered include restricting private vehicles and encouraging public trans-portation. On the one hand, private car owners in big cities need to pay plate number fee for way-leave. Therefore, managing urban nonlocal vehicles, to restrict traffic, can by market-oriented economics means of intercity motorway toll; on the other hand, taking a variety of means to en-courage intercity public transportation, market-oriented methods such as congestion toll for the private vehicles, nonlocal vehicle toll and Park-and-Ride (R&R) mode. Under the premise of en-couraging public transport and limiting private cars, three intercity traffic modes can be considered: private car, park and ride, high-speed rail. First, this paper tries to establish path generalized cost function including the travel time and time cost, and then build the discrete choice model based on the random utility theory, next obtain the solution of traffic flow distribution of the three travel patterns under combination of different congestion toll and nonlocal vehicle toll, finally, a numerical analysis method is used to show the traffic flow change more intuitively. The result demonstrates that it is feasible to optimize the structure of traffic modes by some economic methods.