气候变化与中国低碳技术创新——环境规制的中介作用

Climate Change and China’s Low-Carbon Innovation—Mediating Role of Environmental Regulation

摘要: 气候变化的技术应对研究大多聚焦低碳技术创新如何缓解气候变化的机制，而与此相反的作用路径，即气候变化倒逼低碳创新的作用机制较少得到关注，进行这一倒逼作用研究有助于衡量技术响应的效果，研究应包括直接作用以及经由其他变量作为中介的间接作用。使用2004~2015年中国30个省市的面板数据分析显示，气候变化对中国低碳创新具有直接的显著倒逼作用，环境压力成功转变为中国低碳技术创新的动力。实证研究进而发现，投资型环境规制是中国这一成功转变的重要中介变量，气候变化压力可以通过加大环境投资而转变为低碳创新的正向激励。与之相比，中国费用型环境规制无法传导气候变化压力。

Abstract: Most of the research about technological response to climate change focuses on the mechanism of how low-carbon innovation mitigates climate change. On the contrary, less attention is paid to the mechanism of climate change driving low-carbon innovation. Research on this reverse effect helps to measure the effect of technological response to climate change, including direct effect and indirect effect via other variables. Using panel data of 30 provinces from 2004 to 2015, the results of this paper show that climate change has direct effect on low carbon innovation. Environmental pressure is successfully transmitted as a driving force for innovation. Furthermore, empirical study finds that investment-based environmental regulation is an important mediating variable in the process. The climate change pressure can be transformed into a positive incentive for low-carbon innovation by increasing environmental investment. In contrast, China’s cost-based environmental regulation is insufficient to transmit the pressure of climate change.