气候变化下水电能源开发利用若干问题探讨
Brief Discussion of Several Issues on Development of Hydropower Energy under Climate Change
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2012.16081, PDF, HTML,  被引量 下载: 3,453  浏览: 14,454  国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 张礼兵*, 张展羽*:河海大学水利水电学院;金菊良, 张 虎:合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院;赵言国:水利部淮委沂沭河水利管理局
关键词: 气候变化水电能源开发利用Climate Change; Hydropower Energy; Development and Utilization
摘要: 全球气候变化已对现代自然环境和人类社会的各个方面产生越来越深入的影响。在简要论述了全球气候变化对水电能源开发带来重大机遇和挑战的基础上,分别就气候变化下的水电能源开发、运行风险分析以及优化调度管理等问题进行了初步探讨,最后就今后该领域主要研究内容进行了分析。充分考虑水电能源系统在各种极端气候情景下的运行状况以把其对气候变化的敏感性降到最低程度,是现代水电工程科学建设管理和社会发展实践的必由之路。
Abstract: The global climate change has been doing greater and greater influence on nature and human society. After a brief discussion on the great opportunities, as well as challenge, that brought by the global climate change, this paper try to probe several issues such as the development and utilization, running risk analysis, and optimal scheduling of hydropower energy under the climate change. The main research contents existed in this field are analyzed finally. It is only way, for the social development and modern management of hydropower energy, that to minimize the its sensitivity to climate change taking full account of all kinds of extreme weather.
文章引用:张礼兵, 金菊良, 张展羽, 张虎, 赵言国. 气候变化下水电能源开发利用若干问题探讨[J]. 水资源研究, 2012, 1(6): 501-504. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2012.16081

参考文献

[1] Intergovernmental Pane on Climate Change. Formulation of response strategies. Report Prepared for IPCC by Working Group III, 1990: P48-P49.
[2] ROBINSON, P. J. Climate change and hydropower generation. International Journal of Climatology, 1997, 17(9): 983-996.
[3] MOLARIUS, R., KERÄNEN, J., SCHABEL, J. and WESS- BERG, N. Creating a climate change risk assessment procedure: Hydropower plant case, Finland. Hydrology Research, 2010, 41(3-4): 282-294.
[4] HARRISON, G. P., WHITTINGTON, H. W. and WALLACE, A. R. Sensitivity of hydropower performance to climate change. International Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2006, 26(1): 42-48.
[5] SUNDT, N. A. Extreme summer weather conditions test US energy infrastructure. Energy Economics and Climate Change, 1993, 8: 2-3.
[6] MARKOFF, M. S., CULLEN, A. C. Impact of climate change on Pacific North-west hydropower. Climatic Change, 2008, 87 (3-4): 451-469.
[7] BOER, M. M., KOSTER, E. A. and LUNDBERG, H. Green- house impact in Fennoscandia—Preliminary findings of a Euro- pean workshop on the effects of climate change. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 1990, 19: 2-10.
[8] 刘春婷. 吉林省东南部山区地方水电年利用小时数对气候变化的响应[J]. 吉林水利, 2009, 8: 75-78. LIU Chunting. The impact of annual using hours of local hydropower in Northeast mountain area of Jilin Province on the climate change. Jilin Water Resources, 2009, 8: 75-78. (in Chinese)
[9] 王栋, 朱元甡. 风险分析在水系统中的应用研究进展及其展望[J]. 河海大学报, 2002, 30(2): 71-77. WANG Dong, ZHU Yuansheng. Review and expectation of ap- plication of risk analysis to water resource systems. Journal of Hehai University (Natural Sciences), 2002, 30(2): 71-77. (in Chinese)
[10] BAECHER, G. B., PATE, M. E. and NEUFVILLE, R. D. Risk of dam failure in benefit-cost analysis. Water Resource Research, 1980, 16(4): 449-456.
[11] MOY, W. S., COHON, J. L. and REVELLE, C. S. A program- ming model for analysis of the reliability, resilience, and vulner- ability of a water supply reservoir. Water Resource Research, 1986, 22(4): 489-498.
[12] 洪家宁. 水库泥沙淤积量风险分析[J]. 水文, 1994, 14(4): 14-18. HONG Jihaning. Risk analysis of reservoir sedimentation. Hy- drology, 1994, 14(4): 14-18. (in Chinese)
[13] 冯平, 陈根福, 纪恩福, 等. 岗南水库超汛限水位蓄水的风险分析[J]. 天津大学学报, 1995, 28(4): 572-576. FENG Ping, CHEN Genfu, JI Enfu, et al. Risk analysis of water storage over limit water level during flood season in Gangnan reservoir. Journal of Tianjin University, 1995, 28(4): 572-576. (in Chinese)
[14] 谢崇宝, 袁宏源, 郭元裕. 水库防洪全面风险率模型研究[J]. 武汉水利电力大学学报, 1997, 30(2): 71-74. XIE Chongbao, YUAN Hongyuan and GUO Yuanyu. Overall risk model of reservoir flood control. Journal of Wuhan Univer- sity of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering, 1997, 30(2): 71-74. (in Chinese)
[15] 杜成锐, 赵永龙, 陈尧. 流域梯级水电站集控中心管理的必要性及对低碳经济发展的作用[J]. 四川水力发电, 2010, 29(6): 214-216. DU Chengrui, ZHAO Yonglong and CHEN Yao. The neces-sity of centralized control center management for cascade hydro- power stations and its role in developing low-carbon economy. Sichuan Water Power, 2010, 29(6): 214-216. (in Chinese)
[16] 尚金成, 张勇传, 岳子忠, 等. 梯级电站短期优化运行的新模型及其最优性条件[J]. 水电能源科学, 1998, 16(3): 1-9. SHANG Jincheng, ZHANG Yongchuan, YUE Zizhong, et al. The model and optimality conditions for cascaded plants short term optimal operation. Hydroelectric Energy, 1998, 16(3): 1-9. (in Chinese)
[17] 马光文, 王黎. 水电站群隐随机优化调度方法及其软件包研制[J]. 成都科技大学学报, 1995, 84: 8-14. MA Guangwen, WANG Li. Standardized optimum algorithm and software for operation of multireservoir hydropower system. Journal of Chendu University of Science and Tech-nology, 1995, 84: 8-14. (in Chinese)