广东省半个世纪以来的洪水、干旱与台风灾害演变特征研究

Flood, Drought and Typhoon Disasters over the Last Half-Century in Guangdong Province, China

摘要: 本文系统分析了广东省半个世纪以来由于洪水、干旱、台风三种自然灾害造成的社会经济损失的变化特征；另外，台风对广东省旱涝灾害的影响也做了探讨。研究结果表明：1) 虽然广东省气候以湿热为主，但近几十年来，干旱愈益严重，从而由干旱而导致的经济损失增加，从这个意义上来看，广东省除了传统意义上的防洪以外，抗旱的重要性逐年增加。2) 广东省部分地区地势低平，极易受洪水淹没影响，同时，地势低平之处也往往是人口密集之处。由洪灾造成的损失在90年代之前呈上升变化，而90年代以后，洪灾损失有减少的趋势，这主要归功于降水的季节性变化以及防洪措施的改善。3) 广东省还受台风的影响，而且相当一部分洪水是由台风引起的。台风主要通过山洪、强风以及风暴潮对广东省造成破坏。

Abstract: In this paper, we present the changing properties of social-economic losses caused by floods, droughts, and typhoon disasters in the Guangdongprovince, an economically prosperous province in theSouth China. Influences of typhoon activities on droughts and floods are also analyzed. Results based on extensive and thorough investigations indicate that: 1) Guangdong province is generally humid and warm; however, in recent decades, the negative impacts of droughts seem to be enhancing, which is proved by increasing drought-induced economic losses. In this connection, considerable importance should be attached to droughts, not solely to floods, in Guangdong; 2) Low-lying terrain of the province makes this region easy to be influenced by flood inundation. Moreover, highly urbanized areas are mostly located in the low-lying areas. Flood-induced loss was increasing before the 1990s and is decreasing after 1990s, and this should be attributed mainly to seasonal shifts of precipitation changes and enhancing human mitigation to flood disasters; 3) Typhoon activities often inflict considerable losses on the economy of Guangdong province. Moreover, flood events in the study region are mostly the results of typhoon activities. Massive floods, strong wind and storm surge accompanying typhoon activities are the major factors intensifying the negative impacts of the typhoon disasters.