近30年菏泽市气温时空特征分析

An Analysis on Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Temperature in Heze City in Recent 30 Years

摘要: ：基于菏泽市八县一区观测站1981~2010年的月均气温资料，利用ArcGIS 10.0空间分析工具和经验正交函数分解算法，分析了年、季平均气温时空变化趋势和年际变化特征。分析结果表明：菏泽市年平均气温整体上呈增长趋势，春、秋和冬季的增长贡献大于夏季的增长贡献。且菏泽市年平均气温增长趋势具有明显的空间差异，东明县的中西部地区和巨野县的东部地区的年增长率为0.02℃~0.03℃；曹县、定陶、鄄城、东明东部、牡丹区周围地区、郓城北部和东部地区和巨野西部地区的年增长率为0.03℃~0.04℃；成武、单县、郓城西南地区和菏泽牡丹区的年增长率为0.04℃~0.05℃。另外，菏泽市平均气温的年际变化具有2.3年的周期特征，单县、成武、曹县东部和定陶东南部地区与东明、巨野中东部和鄄城西部地区的平均气温增长/降低大致分为三个阶段：1981~1988年、1989~2000年和2001~2010。

Abstract: Based on the monthly averaged temperature from observation stations over Heze City during the periods of 1981 to 2010, and using the ArcGIS 10.0 spatial analysis tools and the empirical orthogonal function, this paper ana-lyzes the change trend of annual and seasonal temperature, and discusses the temperature’s inter-annual variation. The results show that the annual averaged temperature in season is a clear upward trend with the higher warming contribu-tion in spring, autumn and winter than summer. And the upward trend has an obvious spatial distribution. An average annual temperature growth rate is 0.02°C - 0.03°C over western-center Dongming country, the 0.03°C - 0.04°C distributes over Caoxian country, Dingtao country, Juancheng country, eastern Dongming country, the surrounding area of Mudan district, northeastern Yuncheng country and western Juye country, and the 0.04°C - 0.05°C covers Chengwu country, Shanxian country, southwestern Yuncheng country and Mudan district. In addition, the temperature’s interannual change has a cycle period of 2.3 years, and the regions covering Shanxian country, Chengwu country, eastern Caoxian country and southeastern Dingtao country and the regions covering Dongming country, mid-eastern Juye country and western Juancheng country are in upward/downward trend with three phases: 1981-1988, 1989-2000 and 2001-2010.